Population grows at the fastest rate in 30 years

Figures released yesterday showed that 64,421 people were living in the island on 30 June last year, 645 more than 12 months earlier, which was the largest annual increase since the population boom of the 1980s and early 90s.

If the rate of increase seen in the first six months of 2023 has been maintained since then, the island’s population will break through the 65,000 barrier any day now, but this will not become clear until next year.

The latest known annual increase, which was just over 1%, was driven entirely by inward migration, with 789 more people moving to the island than left, whereas there were 144 more deaths than births.

Policy & Resources president Lyndon Trott was concerned about increasing demand for housing and health care, but he welcomed the latest figures as a sign of economic growth.

‘It shows how attractive a place to live and work Guernsey continues to be, and it means that the number of people working has also increased, supporting a strong and vibrant economy. I believe our economy remains in extremely good health.’

Employment & Social Security president Peter Roffey acknowledged the benefits of economic growth but warned of a potentially damaging ‘population escalator’ if the latest trends continued.

‘An ongoing annual increase of around 650 people a year is simply unsustainable, within our current infrastructure, or if we want to maintain any sort of quality of life,’ he said.

‘A 1% increase doesn’t sound like much, but if it is compounded for just 10 years it would take our population to well over 70,000.’

In October 2022, the States agreed a population policy put forward by Home Affairs which assumed that net inward migration – the number arriving in the island minus the number leaving – would average 300 people a year.

The latest data indicates that it is running at more than twice that level.

‘We know we have significant challenges and higher than expected population increases add to that pressure,’ said Deputy Trott.

‘We need to be realistic about the housing and health care challenges we are facing and the need to address them sooner rather than later.’