North of island under water unless global warming slows

GUERNSEY’S northern parishes will be underwater if global warming levels are not lowered, according to an international researcher.


A global interactive map, created by scientific researchers Climate Central, shows that the Vale, St Sampson’s and the western coastline will one day be ‘permanently underwater’ if global warming of 4°C continues, which is the rate predicted by climate change experts.

The map shows scientific projections of the different post-2100 sea levels that could lock in this century, depending upon the amount of carbon pollution produced.

According to the website, these changes ‘could be sooner than 200 years from now or as long as 2,000 years, as it is easier to estimate how much ice will eventually melt from a certain amount of warming than how quickly it will melt’.

And local expert Professor Nick Day said there was ‘growing uncertainty’ among researchers as to how seriously the collapse of Antarctic glaciers would impact climate change.

He cited the breakdown of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet as being of notable concern, both short-term and in the future.

The Climate Central map, which uses data from NASA’s Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, allows you to explore the potential effects of unchecked pollution, minor cuts, moderate cuts and extreme cuts worldwide. It can be found at

Comments for: "North of island under water unless global warming slows"


Is this nonsense still being promulgated.

A question for the Press. The global warming rate of 4°C continuing from where? Which 'climate experts' are saying this nonsense?

Even the IPCC which are so far off it's laughable as none of their predictions have come true, none of their models work. Their projections in 1990 were for a rise of 2.78°C per Century. The observed temperature so far from RSS will equate to 1.27°C.

Since 1990 the IPCC has halved its medium term predictions.

Western Antarctica which the 'alarmists' keep focussing on straddles an active volcano range, part of the 'Ring of Fire'.

I thought Professor Day's field was health, not climate science?

The warmistas are getting more and more shrill as the day is getting closer when the 'climate gravy train' is about to be derailed by President Elect Trump, and 'political science' comes to an end.


I find articles that use buzz words like 'alarmists' very dubious at best. It's a made up word whose only purpose it to try and create a rival group so that focus can be taken away from facts and put towards the feeling that someone is trying to take advantage. If the facts speak for themselves there would be no need for buzz words like that. It's like someone got the facts and the story and thought "this really isn't convincing enough, I know i'll add some buzz words to reinforce my point". The worst part is that it seems to work!

It's like saying 'political correctness gone mad', what is political correctness? It doesn't really exist but was created as a way to summarily dismiss anything to do with race, gender, sexual orientation etc and deflect from the story to place blame on those that are actually trying to do good. Trump used this card to great effect constantly declaring his dislike for political correctness, that he isn't politically correct and that he will stamp it out. What did it mean? Nothing but people ate it up because they related politically correct to the feeling that they didn't like it backed up by media stories constantly pumped out with the phrase in it attached to anything negative.


@ Jake.

Ok, you want to deal in facts. Since the reporter that compiled this guff hasn't bothered to answer my three pertinent questions, perhaps you would like to take on the mantle and answer them?

If anybody needs another example about the 'climate gravy train', have a look at the biomass subsidy fiasco in Northern Ireland. That subsidy has cost the taxpayer there nearly half a billion pounds.


If you insist.

The global warming rate of 4°C continuing from where?

pre-industrial levels

Which 'climate experts' are saying this nonsense?

World Bank report

I thought Professor Day's field was health, not climate science?

I don't know Professor Day

Re your Northern Ireland fiasco, are you claiming that farmers and businesses taking advantage (and quite frankly taking the **** out) of the subsidy are to blame for inventing global warming? I cannot see how the two connect. People denying that global warming exists always go on about it being for the money but there is more money in people believing there isn't any global warming when there is than people believing there is global warming when there isn't.


@ Jake.

No, I don't know Professor Day either, but the local media always trot him out as an expert on climate and infer his being a Professor is associated with climate science, a quick google reveals this not to be the case.

Re the NI fiasco, I'm saying nothing of the sort. I'm stating that this alarmist claptrap is fuelling these ridiculous subsidies such as biomass used in burners.

Which particular World Bank report? They have published dozens. Of course not all readers on here are going to be aware that this is the organisation that has a vested interest in promoting 'climate change' as they are also on the 'gravy train' auctioning off the con known as carbon credits.

Just to be clear, I'm aware the climate has always changed and always will. I reiterate, not one computer model has accurately predicted the affects of man-made CO2 on climate. This constant drip drip of propaganda by the likes of Al Gore has duped a lot of people. I suggest that those that don't believe me go to this link where a British Judge accused him of political indoctrination in schools.

It's a shame I can't post graphs on here, you were very vague when you said 'pre-industrial' levels, but for argument's sake let's say around the 1830's? We were just emerging from the Little Ice Age then, so temperatures were bound to be rising. This is acknowledged as the coldest period in modern times.

Answer me this, as we're still pumping out all this CO2, how come there has been a pause in global warming (as acknowledged by the UK Met. Office, and NASA) for the last 18.5 years? Now the large El Nino has dissipated late last year, it's funny how none of the general media have reported the huge drop in land temperatures recorded by all the global datasets.

Island Wide Voting

For information (presumably from people not employed within the multi billion global warming industry) on Glacier fluctuations during the past 2000 years ... go to


No matter how many of these reports are produced there will still be people that deny global warming because they don't want it to be true.

John West

What utter tosh and sadly most people swallow the propaganda.

Folks, it doesn't take 5 minutes of reading reputable sources to see that yes, North Pole is melting (FYI - ice does melt) but here's the bit the 'experts' forget to tell you, the ice in the South Pole is increasing (NASA and many others say as much).

Why bother leading people to believe something that isn't correct? Well a lot of people stand to make a great deal of money, governments included, by taxing for carbon levels, fossil fuel usage etc.

I'm not saying the worlds climate isn't impacted by pollution, of course it is, look at places like China; but the solution isn't to turn our TV off standby overnight, it is to sensibly use and reuse the resources we do have and force the companies that hold patents for working renewable energy to either develop the technology or hand it over to the public domain to save the physical damage of extracting fossil fuel resources to the planet.

Sea levels rise and fall, flooding occurs and freak weather has always existed.

I live up North and am fairly confident my house will stand for a long time yet.


What about the bit you 'forgot' to tell us? That since the late 1970s, the Arctic has lost an average of 20,800 square miles of sea ice per year, while the Antarctic has gained an annual average of 7,300 square miles.

Why bother leading people to believe something that isn't correct?

John West

One word



Must have been a hard sell to start with!

"Hello investors, I would like you to invest in my solar power plant. It produces less electricity than normal plants and costs more but it doesn't contribute to global warming."

"What's global warming?"

"It's something I am going to make up in order to sell my solar plants"

"Well I was going to invest in Microsoft but this sounds much better"


It also amazes me that some are so quick to believe that climate change is a myth that was made up for people to make money. I'm sure you are aware that oil companies are some of the richest on the planet. 5 of the top 10 richest companies are oil companies that make aprox £300 million a day! How can you be so quick to believe that climate change is a hoax to make money but won't believe that those denying climate change could be perpetrating their own hoax? There is more money to be made from it being a hoax than not so stands to reason that if money was the motivating factor there would be more saying that climate change doesn't exist than does.


"What utter tosh and sadly most people swallow the propaganda."

I don't think the people of Shishmaref Island would agree with you, try this link to read what I mean.

Or the Archaeologists in this article.

Climate change has innumerable facets, it is not the simple one issue argument it has been reduced to by those who deny it.

Election Issues

Sarichef Island is a barrier island consisting of sand dunes and gravel banks. Bering Strait, Alaska. Tidal flows and prevailing winds produce longshore drift.

It is part of a dynamic island chain that is constantly moving. Sarichef Island is migrating north east whereas Shishmaref town is eroding on the west side.

The island is not disappearing into the sea. Sea level rise has been less than 0.27mm year.

Global Warming and Global Cooling are well established facts. The Earth is almost always warming or cooling.

However, Global Warming has been shown to be caused by human beings........those human beings who are consistently tampering with all the raw data so it fits all the propaganda!


Really, read ",_Alaska"

Election Issues

From this....."Erosion is occurring along the entire island chain, but it is exacerbated at Sarichef a Island in part because of the hydrographic impacts of hard armouring of the sandy shore face and permafrost degradation that is accelerated by infrastructure"

Shishmaref is a village on a barrier island . A barrier island that shifts and moves.

Shishmaref village is being preferentially eroded due to a section of the sandy seashore being hard armoured with rocks. The wave energy is no longer absorbed by the beach as before but has to go somewhere so pushes sea water along the beach.

Erosion has also increased because of the intense infrastructure development during the 20th century.

Longshore drift and prevailing winds are the main cause of erosion and reformation on this barrier island.


Is this why the Artic is at the top of the world whilst Antarctica is at the bottom ? Because the ice is heavier at the bottom ??



So even nature only picks on the great unwashed..

John West

Good excuse to build in the South though


Hey now, there's no need to be cheeky!!


Who'd have thought it?

Island Wide Voting

Looks like a rebuild of La Mare de Carteret would be 80M down the drain :-(

Runs with Scissors

For a moment there I thought this was a map of the Draft Island Development Plan and it's housing target areas.

My mistake.

Victor Meldrew

Wur doomed Captain Mannerin, wur all doomed!

Le Goubert

Global Warming= another FAKE news story perpetuated by the Main Stream Media.

The only place on earth that will be under water is Mexico, when Trump's wall goes up and the country will sink under the weight of their own immigrants.


That wall is never going up, he just said it to try and get votes.

Banned again!

U not Pumped for Trump Jake? That's sad.


Not pumped, not sure what to expect to be honest. He is a bit of an unknown as his appointments and what is saying leaves what kind of president he will be very open to interruption. I thought Hiliary would have been the lesser of two evils but what's done is done and I hope he will be good for America and the rest of the world. I'm not sure how much of how he comes across is a facade and I guess time will tell.

The main thing that worries me is that he is used to being the big fish in his own pond but now he will be a big fish in a lake full of other big fish, intimidation and a bullish attitude would not have the same effect. Also I have never heard him say he was wrong, most politicians avoid this by not giving concrete answers until they possess all the facts but he shoots a tweet out before having all the facts. That will lead to him saying something foolish and incorrect at some point and it will be interesting to see how he deals with that, kudos if he can admit he was wrong.

Donkey Boiler

Just a point of order, sea ice melt does not increase sea level. The ice displaces the same volume of water that it replaces when it melts. However, the reduction in arctic sea ice may be attributable to global warming.


Indeed, but the glaciers that are on land are a problem.


Still; Not all bad. If I can just hang on for another 80 odd years I'll live by the coast.

Island Wide Voting

You could consider starting up a burial at sea business from your spare room



If I did hold on I'd almost certainly be my first customer!!!

Don Tramp

I think that will be the least of our problems as we are going bankrupt.


some people are very scared, they are carrying kayaks on top of their vans just in case.


This is why more housing is being planned for the already over-crowded north... so that in a few hundred years there will still be space left down south for all the houses that will be needed then.

But it all looks very pretty with half a dozen islands off Guernsey's new northern coast... Island Taxis better start looking at getting some boats so that they can also operate Island Water Taxis and Barry Brehaut better start looking for some water buses.


I sail with the chief hydrographer to ABP on the Humber, they have 400 years of data and can find no measurable increase in sea level in this period not 1mm.

If it happens it will be in many hundreds of years by which time no one will live here because they wont be able to afford to.


I'll have a beach-front property finally!!

Election Issues

Yes indeed. ..... and finally you will have something in common with Al 'An Inconvenient Truth' Gore with his beach front property in Montecito, Santa Barbara, CA.

Watch out for his follow up documentary An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power. Premiere Jan 19th!!!


Wait until the experts are up to their necks in water - all talk at present - then hear them scream - too late!!!

Island Wide Voting

I doubt that the expert's great-great-great grandchildren will ever be up to their necks in water.... by which time hopefully someone will have worked out how to produce accurate computer models

Actually accurate computer models probably exist right now ... it's the deliberately duff data fed into them by shall we say 'interested parties' that is the real problem

I believe The Donald has a name for it .... FAKE NEWS


Just a few thoughts, which, seem to be 'too much for The Donald Brain' to take in, ? but, when Ice melts, it always has, still does, and always will becomes Water. ! There is absolutely no doubt that 'Global Warming' is happening.,Global Ice Shelves are melting and, they produce absolutely huge amounts of additional water, that inevitably increase sea levels. Make a trip to Pembroke which is 'sea level'. People like ''The Donald' obviously see 'no problem' and an ideal place to build a house.? Good fun to come, when, in due course, it all get's washed away.!!

Island Wide Voting

The only reason that Pembroke / L'Ancresse common will ever get washed away is through the criminal neglect being perpetrated by Baz and his greenie advisors in not repairing the crumbling wall at the L'Ancresse end

He can't find the few hundred quid needed for some stone armour and a couple of lorry loads of ready mix but is willing to abandon the beach cafe/toilet block and the roadway to the car park which will cost hundreds of thousands to replace

The swivel eyed loons have taken over.How the hell did we let that happen?


Global warming!! Governments and made up University Environment Degrees in global warming for this and that given to already brainwashed Graduates and pushed forward by like minded Dotty Professors coining it in by propagating their scare tactics on the masses. Just like the Churches used to do in older times with scare stories about going to hell if they didn't come around to their way of thinking, to coin it in from the Peasants if they didn't kow tow to the Church line. Control freaks the lot of them.

Global Warming is the new Religion of the smug, highly educated, and unworldly wise, well off idiots who have the time or can afford to support this fashionable claptrap, and use this to make themselves feel as if they are giving something back for their comfortable life, without spending their own money, and Alleive themselves from their own personal guilt trip.

Jamie B

A concise, well-reasoned and well-researched rebuttal of the raft of scientific data gathered since Svent Arrehnius first brought the issue into the public realm back in 1896. Well done Jasperino. I'll see if I can muster a hand clap slow enough to warrant your input.


For those desperate to throw 60M pounds in the sea in the form of a swamp school, the supposed stabilisation of warming figures has now been shown to be incorrect. Not surprising that the release of millions of years worth of carbon capture in a century causes an inbalance. But I suppose you climate change deniers are either just worrying about next week's profits or think the world's only 6000 years old. Not much we can do about greed or wilful ignorance.

Island Wide Voting

Are you suggesting that we can't trust the figures bandied about by both sides of the global warming debate?


Come on GP. This paper throws some interesting light on things but seems to have gone unnoticed by the media. Funny that.