‘Some businesses could be locked down all year’
SOME sectors of Guernsey’s economy have been warned they are likely to remain with lockdown curbs until the end of this year.
Lyndon Trott, the vice-president of Policy & Resources, was setting out the need for £500m. of government borrowing, when he gave an indication of how long the strict measures will last for.
‘We modelled a 13-week lockdown and a six-week lockdown, and the difference between the two was about £40m.
‘The reality is, thankfully, that we won’t have full lockdown for 13 weeks, but some sectors of the economy will effectively be in lockdown for the rest of this year.’
The massive borrowing is likely to be approved when the virtual States meeting resumes today, but an amendment to the scheme from Deputy Andrea Dudley-Owen was successful yesterday.
Her motion means that the borrowing will be split into two chunks, and the second one will be dependent on a proper economic recovery strategy and more details about how the debt will be repaid.
Deputy Trott acknowledged that the stimulus plan had not been completed yet, but he said the best time to borrow was now with interest rates of around 1.5 to 2.5%.
‘We cannot wait until we know the detail before knowing that we must invest in our future.
‘By the time our GDP has fallen 15%, our unemployment has risen to 2,000 or more, and our tourist industry is dead and buried, it will be too late.’
The alternative option to borrowing was explained as austerity, which would include higher taxes, cuts to public services and the plundering of the States’ savings accounts.
Deputy Trott said the austerity route would mean that the recovery would last for generations, instead of years.
The massive economic stimulus package is due to be debated by the States at the end of May, and Deputy Trott gave some suggestions of what it might look like.
‘We could plan for a recovery which includes investment in assets and connectivity, in transport connectivity, in digital connectivity, the connectivity that employers need in order to grow and our community needs for its quality of life.
‘We could plan to support local construction and its role in infrastructure projects that enhance our community, such as the enhancement of the seafront.’
The need to show confidence was a key theme of the rallying speech from Deputy Trott.
He urged his political colleagues to take a ‘calculated risk’ and exhibit vigour, strength and leadership in order to inspire business leaders and the community.
‘This is about people’s lives, it is about their jobs, it impacts on our community, on hard-working families.
‘If we as a States do not signal that we have the ambition, assurance and confidence to invest in Guernsey, why will they?'
More on debate Page 2
