Fertility rate in England and Wales drops to new record low

The total fertility rate across England and Wales dropped to a new record low last year, while the number of live births fell to the lowest in nearly five decades.

While fertility rates across the two nations have been in overall decline since 2010, the rate in 2023 fell to 1.44 children per woman, which the Office for National Statistics said is the lowest value since records began in 1938.

The rate was down from an average of 1.49 children per woman over their lifetime in 2022, and has decreased most among women aged 20 to 24 – down 79% from 181.6 live births per 1,000 women of this age group in 1964 to 38.6 in 2023.

The biggest drops in the overall total fertility rate were in Wales (1.46 to 1.39) and the north west of England (1.53 to 1.46).

London (1.39 to 1.35), the North East (1.47 to 1.43) and the West Midlands (1.62 to 1.58) saw the smallest decreases.

In 2023, the number of live births (591,072) in England and Wales fell to the lowest since 1977 when there were 569,259.

The data, which also covers stillbirth rates, said those fell in Wales from a rate of 4.4 per 1,000 births in 2022 to 4.0, and stayed the same in England at 3.9 stillbirths per 1,000 births.

Stillbirth rates overall remain higher for Asian, black, and “any other” ethnic groups than the England and Wales overall rate, the statistics body added.

Greg Ceely, head of population health monitoring at the ONS, said: “The annual number of births in England and Wales continues its recent decline, with 2023 recording the lowest number of live births seen since 1977.

“Total fertility rates declined in 2023, a trend we have seen since 2010. Looking in more detail at fertility rates among women of different ages, the decline in fertility rates has been the most dramatic in the 20-24 and 25-29 age groups.”