Pop. 64,000 ‘we ain’t seen nothing yet’
PRUDENT of the States to rely on planning for a population increase of 300 people each year for the next 30 years, when latest figures, published yesterday, indicate an increase of 600 year-on-year and the island’s population slowly ticking past 64,000.
That figure is unlikely to be a cause for celebration for many.
But it’s the first milestone passed in what we can expect to be many more if the island’s economy is to continue to function effectively. But that will bring additional pressure.
We can say that, despite the best efforts of some to block it, the crossing of this Rubicon feels significant. Guernsey is unlikely to slip back below the 64,000 population level, and it’s going to keep climbing.
And are we seeing the right sort of growth? The working age population has grown, so too the retired age bracket, while the number of children has fallen again, with recorded births slumping as deaths rise.
The decision to plan for further growth – explicitly not to set a target – taken nine months ago, was, Home Affairs said, intended to move the States forward in its planning.
Now, as land is bought for homes but houses are not being built, the island is seeing the growth it expected, arguably wanted, but does not appear to be ready for it.
As a deputy warned in debate last October: ‘We ain’t seen nothing yet.’