Longer runway not justified

Guernsey’s population will have to increase by 50% to match Jersey’s. Retired pilots, business organisations and the tourist sector carry on about runway extensions and therefore cheaper seats, but which airlines with A319/A320s have said they guarantee operating a number of these jets to Guernsey (with the market size that we have) if we do spend the millions needed?

Summer flights from Dublin to Jersey have already started, up to six flights a week operated by ATRs. Also, daily flights to Jersey from Doncaster, operated with EMB175s. These are just examples of the many non-large jet flights to Jersey by aircraft that can land in Guernsey now, but whose services we don’t get. People are obviously willing to pay the seat prices on these aircraft to get to Jersey, but have no interest in Guernsey. Why? Probably because our population and therefore home market size is not big enough and many of their population have a lot more family connections outside the island.

It’s going to be interesting to see how much the new open skies policy is going to generate a larger market in Guernsey. I exclude the Heathrow route from this comment, as it is so over-subsidised by us it is probably going to reduce the Gatwick service. Are the Heathrow passengers going to pay the real seat price when the subsidy stops, or is the real intention to keep paying it?

If the States agree to the spending, perhaps they should also consider greatly increasing the business taxes to cover it. Remember the loss-making London City service they wanted but didn’t use, but moaned that it was stopped and wanted Aurigny to continue with the losses.

Yes, I’d love cheaper fares, but cannot see a longer runway generating more than an occasional summer charter with a large jet. At best we may get two daily return Easyjet flights (probably with a subsidy) to Gatwick – replacing Aurigny. We won’t see any of the other Easyjet flights to Southend, Luton, Newcastle, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Liverpool and Belfast that Jersey get. A quick look at flights to Guernsey, the Isle of Man and Jersey reflects the effects of market size. Jersey, population 100,000: Easyjet A319s from Gatwick and seven other airports plus five British Airways A319s from Gatwick. The Isle of Man, population 84,000: Easyjet A319s from Gatwick and four other airports. No British Airways flights from Gatwick. Guernsey, population 63,000: well, we know what our market size gets us.

People need to get realistic about our size and place in the present world. Or, engage in a multimillion-pound land reclamation to increase our home market size by 50% and build multiple tourist facilities.

Compared to Jersey’s six flights, we can’t even get one ATR load of 72 passengers a week to come here from Dublin – how are we going to fill A319 jets with 156 seats?

GUERNIE

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