Government can’t do it all

AT THE risk of alienating a goodly number of you, let me say at the outset that I have a fair bit of sympathy for chief minister Peter Ferbrache.

The reason is simple – it’s because government can’t do everything. Obvious, but no longer a widely held view. And so, left to its own devices – Education’s ill-judged attempt to interfere with the independent colleges being a case in point – the States would seek to control everything. And many islanders would be happy if it did, in these cradle-to-grave days of welfare expectation.

The other reason is he and many of his colleagues still have L-plates on. It’s generally accepted in political life, I think, that no new deputy (or one returning after a period of absence) is fully effective until they’ve learned or relearned the ropes, and that takes around four years, or one States term. This lack of detailed understanding classically demonstrated itself, of course, in pie-crust pre-election promises not to introduce GST.

So three years in and wisdom is being acquired. Along with the realisation that being chief minister may bestow prestige but certainly not power and, much as everyone expects you or Policy & Resources to fix everything (and you get the blame when it doesn’t), the magic wand toolbox is pretty bare.

So what we now see – and the latest version of the Government Work Plan is the clearest evidence to date – is that these lessons have been learned and P&R’s modus operandi is changing significantly.

This now expressly recognises that real power lies with the principal committees – but so too therefore does responsibility and accountability.

How well, or badly, the committees do will be highlighted in an end-of-term report just before the 2025 general election, which will also act as a hand-over document for the next Assembly.

What’s striking about the latest GWP is the understated realism in it. Doing not very much at all, just standing still in fact, takes a lot of effort and increasing amounts of money. That’s for two reasons – being an independent, self-governing micro-state is burdensome and means adhering to rules and regulations, which change and become more onerous; and every time the States does something, it needs to be managed.

That adds what you might call non-productive cost. As P&R puts it: ‘The States have social, environmental and economic policies and strategies in place that remain extant in perpetuity unless rescinded or revised.’ In other words, the expense burden is forever and growing.

To that extent, the difficulties the island now faces really are largely the fault of previous Assemblies. Not external issues like Brexit, the Ukrainian war, Covid recovery and cost of living pressures, or internal ones like an ageing population, falling birthrate, shrinking numbers in work or too few houses, but nice-to-haves piled on by successive States with no thought for making it happen or paying for it.

The list, which is far from exhaustive, is 21 items long and includes significant items like end of life care and a review of possessing illegal drugs with a view to keeping people out of jail. All being kicked into the long grass because government has neither cash nor bodies to pursue them.

Usefully, P&R has pulled together all that the committees say they want or have to do, costed it at a time of financial constraints, and said, you know, something has to give. Which is why the GWP will, if P&R gets its way, be further pared back to housing, especially to advantage States employment, bolstering the public sector, and giving a cursory nod towards the economy.

While we can criticise the document for being light on the economy, growth or containing government costs, it certainly makes the point that government can’t do it all. Oh, and by the way, committees, you are the government.

P&R reinforces this, saying that ‘delivery of the [GWP] rests with those committees… and will be co-ordinated, facilitated, monitored and reported by the Policy & Resources Committee. The statements… have been translated into committee work plans which the States are invited to endorse as the mechanism by which each committee will be held to account.’

This approach has two objectives. Trying to keep the main departments focused on what’s a proper priority for the island and actually deliverable (since government can’t do it all) and keeping an eye on the cumulative consequences of the States doing stuff.

For instance, Active 8 was a 10-year plan for sport but funded for only three, which has now come back to bite the committee since there’s no spare cash left for the remaining seven years. This isn’t an isolated example. As P&R says:

‘The committee notes with concern that it has been unavoidable for major reviews of important legislation to be deferred and under the current financial constraints considers it unlikely that additional resource can be afforded. It will therefore be necessary for committees to prepare sufficient handover reports for successor committees in order that at the start of the next political term this work can again be considered for priority resources in the context of the pressures of the day.’

As I say, this is a significant shift – from previous P&Rs trying to be in charge to this one acknowledging the dominant role of the committees and working within that by highlighting where responsibility and accountability really lies.

The idea of a political hand-over to the next Assembly is also of note, as it could affect election pledges (to do or not do certain things), inform what are hot voter issues and what policies survive in a fresh political term.

The timing of this is interesting too, since P&R is investing a lot of its (remaining) political capital in trying to get the Leale’s Yard housing/Bridge regeneration project over the line and pressing ahead with the similarly overdue attempt to wring some social, economic and environmental benefits out of St Sampson’s and St Peter Port harbours.

So the big question is whether P&R’s arguably more pragmatic approach will work.

If the Government Work Plan becomes accepted as the one ring to bind them all and respected by spending in the committees, it could. But success to date has largely been enforced by there being no money left. Add GST to the mix and who knows…?

The other variable is that previous P&Rs have tried to work with the States as they wished it to be – biddable. This is the first one to treat it as it is – a government of largely independent executive committees, each with their own agendas.

So an entrenched GWP that meets real island needs and survives election cycles has a lot to commend it.

Will it happen?

We’ll have a better idea in about two years’ time after the next election. If it doesn’t work, however, it really will be the death of consensus government.