What to know about the growing conflict between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah

Lebanon said Israeli strikes on Monday killed more than 560 Lebanese and injured almost 2,000 in the deadliest attack since the 2006 war.

Since mid-September, there has been a dizzying escalation in the nearly year-long conflict between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

First came two days of exploding pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah – attacks pinned on Israel that killed at least 39 people and maimed thousands more.

Hezbollah’s leader vowed to retaliate, and on September 20 the militant group launched a wave of rockets into northern Israel. Since then, both sides have fired dozens of rockets on a daily basis, forcing hundreds of thousands of Israelis in the north to huddle in air raid shelters, and prompting tens of thousands of people to flee their homes in parts of southern Lebanon where Hezbollah has a strong presence.

Smoke rises from an Israeli air strike north of Beirut, in the village of Ras Osta, Byblos district, seen from Maaysrah, Lebanon (Bilal Hussein/AP)

Lebanon said Israeli strikes on Monday killed more than 560 Lebanese and injured almost 2,000 in the deadliest attack since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. Several Hezbollah leaders have been targeted in the attacks, including the commander of its most elite unit who was killed in a strike in Beirut.

The United States, France and other allies jointly called for an “immediate” 21-day ceasefire in the conflict to “provide space for diplomacy” as fears grow that the violence could become an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah, which would further destabilise a region already shaken by the war in Gaza. Both sides have said they do not want that to happen, even as they have defiantly warned of heavier attacks.

Israel and Hezbollah have launched repeated strikes against each other since the Israel-Hamas war began, but both sides have pulled back when the spiral of reprisals appeared on the verge of getting out of control, under heavy pressure from the US and its allies. In recent weeks, however, Israeli leaders have warned of a possible bigger military operation to stop attacks from Lebanon to allow hundreds of thousands of Israelis displaced by the fighting to return to homes near the border.

Here are some things to know about the situation:

– What were the latest strikes?

Israel said it intercepted a surface-to-surface missile that targeted Tel Aviv. Hezbollah said it fired a Qader 1 ballistic missile targeting the headquarters of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency.

The Israeli Iron Dome air defence system fires to intercept rockets that were launched from Lebanon, as seen from Haifa, northern Israel (Baz Ratner/AP)

Israel said its air force hit some 280 Hezbollah targets across Lebanon on Wednesday. Lebanon’s health minister said the latest Israeli strikes killed more than 70 people and injured hundreds more. This count brings the death toll to more than 630 Lebanese people in three days.

Two Israelis were wounded by shrapnel after dozens of Hezbollah rockets were fired into northern Israel, the military said.

– What is the situation on the border?

The Israel-Lebanon border has seen almost daily exchanges since the Israel-Hamas war began on October 7, killing more than 630 people in Lebanon, and about 50 soldiers and civilians in Israel. Tens of thousands of people have been displaced on both sides of the border.

An Israeli firefighters' plane uses a fire retardant to extinguish a fire after a rocket fired from Lebanon hit an open area near the city of Safed, northern Israel — An Israeli firefighters’ plane uses a fire retardant to extinguish a fire after a rocket fired from Lebanon hit an open area near the city of Safed, northern Israel (Leo Correa/AP)

Hezbollah says its attacks against Israel are in support of its ally Hamas. Nasrallah said the barrages will continue – and Israelis will not be able to return to homes in the north – until Israel’s campaign in Gaza ends.

US secretary of state Anthony Blinken told NBC News on Wednesday that the US is working on a diplomatic agreement to de-escalate tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.

– What is Israel planning?

Israeli officials say they have not yet made an official decision to expand military operations against Hezbollah – and have not said publicly what those operations might be.

Smoke rises from Israeli air strikes in the southern village of Kfar Rouman, seen from Marjayoun, south Lebanon (Hussein Malla/AP)

Lt Gen Halevi continued: “Later today, they will receive a very strong response. Prepare yourselves.”

Meanwhile, as fighting in Gaza slowed, Israel increased its forces along the Lebanese border, including the arrival of a powerful army division believed to include thousands of troops. And on Wednesday, Israel announced it will further deploy two reserve brigades for missions in the north.

– What would be the impact of a full-blown war?

A new war could be even worse than the one in 2006, which was traumatic enough to serve as a deterrent for both sides ever since. That fighting killed hundreds of Hezbollah fighters and an estimated 1,100 Lebanese civilians, and left large swathes of the south and parts of Beirut in ruins. More than 120 Israeli soldiers were killed and hundreds wounded. Hezbollah missile fire on Israeli cities killed dozens of civilians.

A woman looks at a damaged house that was hit by a rocket fired from Lebanon, near Safed, northern Israel (Leo Correa/AP)

Israel says it could turn southern Lebanon into a battle zone, saying Hezbollah has embedded rockets, weapons and forces along the border. And in the heightened rhetoric of the past months, Israeli politicians have spoken of inflicting the same damage in Lebanon that the military has wreaked in Gaza.