Will Covid make secondary school premises redundant?

A new economics bulletin focused on Guernsey, Jersey, the Isle of Man, Bermuda and Cayman said the pandemic was unlikely to be a ‘one-off’ event and compared its medium-term impact with that of the great financial crisis of 2008.

‘While there are many predictions as to the length of time before a “new normality” prevails, based on previous experience of the 2008 financial crisis, it could be as long as five years before normality returns to the five islands.

‘It is likely that the “ripple effect” of the Covid crisis will take a number of years to dissipate,’ said the report from Critical Economics.

‘Mini “lockdowns” will inevitably occur, government debt will influence future levels of public services, and further government business support will be necessary in 2021 and 2022. What is certain is that this crisis is unlikely to be a one-off event.’

The bulletin also looked at medium-term implications of change brought about by the pandemic – including planning policy and education facilities – amid increased use of technology and a switch to home working and remote learning.

The report said: ‘Will the traditional secondary school premises model become redundant? Will there be a need for centres for soft skills learning with the major part of academic learning being done remotely online? With the need for upskilling and reskilling as a result of the technological evolution, will small parish centres for learning become the norm? Such local centres could also provide facilities for those who have retired but can still be economically active.

‘If tertiary education worldwide shifts to remote learning models – even if just partially – could there be more tertiary centres in each island as location will be less of a deciding factor for students?’

It also raised the possibility of changes to working practices – such as conditions of employment to include home working and covering insurance, heating and lighting.

Home working, where possible, could become standard practice, with virtual communication gradually replacing face-to-face meetings. Childcare resourcing could change as a result.

With the exponential growth of online retailing, the report said a further major contraction of the local retail sector – particularly in town centres – was inevitable. ‘The challenge is what can replace the vacant premises and bring vibrancy back into these centres but without creating clusters of antisocial activity,’ said the bulletin.

When it came to air and sea links, the report warned it was hard to predict the pandemic’s impact – but noted the fact that Aurigny was government-owned provided some security. In terms of tourism, that was dependent on the UK recovery as the primary market for the Crown Dependencies.

On a positive note, it added: ‘Travelling long distances on holiday will be less likely for some time and, therefore, due to the close proximity to their primary markets, all five islands will probably see a quicker recovery than many other more-remote destinations.’