Guernsey’s population rises by 470 due to migration

The details are part of the latest annual electronic census report, which details information from the rolling electronic census. Population information only runs up to March 2020, so gives a snapshot of the island at the very start of the pandemic.

Over the last decade Guernsey’s population has seen two periods of increase and one period of decrease, but overall it has stayed stable.

In 2010, there were 62,431 people, while the first quarter of 2021 saw the number at 63,155.

The latter figure is a 0.7% increase on the previous 12 months. While there was a natural decrease of two people over that period, net migration took the figure up by 470 people.

For the last three years there have been more immigrants than emigrants – the number of people leaving has been falling steadily for that period, while the number of people arriving has remained stable.

Nearly 90% of the people arriving in the island are aged between 16 and 64. Two-thirds of the people leaving the island have been here for less than five years.

Looking at islanders’ country of birth, just over 50% were born in Guernsey.

Around a quarter were born in the UK or Ireland. European countries make up the next biggest group, with 2.2% born in Portugal and 1.5% born in Latvia. The States’ figures did not know the birthplace of about 11% of people.

Population management documents reveal that 60% of people are permanent residents of the island, while 4.7% have employment-related permits and 3.2% live in the open market. Just over 4% live here based on a family member’s licence.

The number of births in the island has been dropping over the decade, from nearly 700 in 2012 to about 500 a year for the last two years. Deaths have outnumbered births for the last four years.

At the end of March 2020, 49.1% of the total population were either employed or self-employed – 0.7% lower than the previous year and 2% higher than at the end of March 2014.

The composition of local households varies, but there is an average of 2.5 people per household, which has been the average for the last five years.

St Peter Port still has the largest population, with 19,203 people. That is 30% of the island’s population and works out as 3,000 people per square kilometre. That is the same population density as Bangladesh. It also had the greatest working age population, with 71% of people aged 16 to 64, yet the fewest children by percentage of population.

St Sampson’s and Vale are the next most populous, with more than 9,000, followed by Castel at 8,775.

The three parishes with the greatest percentage of children – people aged 0 to 15 – were Castel, St Andrew’s and St Martin’s, with more than 17% of their populations.

In terms of the housing market 91% people live in the local market and 5% in open market class A. In the local market 21% of people live in rented accommodation, 10% in social housing and 65% in owner-occupied homes.