More testing is big difference

Increased on-island testing has been a game-changer in tackling the virus, together with an effective contact tracing system and high vaccine uptake.

Nearly 75,000 samples have been taken to date, with 821 identified positive cases from both waves.

‘We’re looking at lessons we’ve learned and also what we can integrate in future management of Covid-19,’ said Dr Nicola Brink, director of Public Health.

Beginning on 9 March and ending on 30 April last year, testing in the first wave was dependent on the UK, with a daily capacity of just 35 samples.

Management of cases was not being done in real time, Dr Brink said, because results took three to four days to return as the UK was overwhelmed itself.

‘Fast forward to where are now, at the end of our second wave on 26 February, our testing capacity has increased fifty-fold.’

Wave two began on 22 January with the most recently identified case found on 26 February.

‘Despite this being a more infectious virus, we had a shorter time in the wave of infection.’

Across the 52 days of wave one, a total 3,752 tests were completed, averaging at 72 per day.

During this 35-day wave, testing capacity was between 1,500 to 2,000 daily tests, totalling just under 30,000 with an average of 855 per day.

On-island testing enabled testing asymptomatic islanders, surge testing and planned workforce screening, and will also be useful for a number of other respiratory viruses and infectious diseases in future.

‘So we’ve developed a huge skill set on the island, which is going to be beneficial as move forward.’

Proactive testing, refined contact tracing processes and a successful vaccine roll-out helped to managed this wave more effectively, Dr Brink said.

‘For example, we are testing all contacts of cases – something we didn’t have the capacity to do in the first wave – so we’re detecting more cases as well.’

Given the new viral dynamics of variants, contact tracing processes were modified to go back 72 hours from when a person became symptomatic rather than 48.

Just over three-quarters of cases were identified through contact tracing during this wave.

‘That is a huge testament to the efficiency of these processes, but we also identified some lessons we can learn.’

Information will be presented to show how people became contacts of cases, to be integrated into future management of Covid-19.

Dr Brink said that a high vaccination uptake may prevent the island from going back into another lockdown.

‘Vaccination has always been something that we’ve said is really the light at end of tunnel enabling us to move forward.’

Identifying another cluster of cases would not necessarily require lockdown again, should it be of a manageable proportion or linked to a common source.

Continuing good hygiene measures and notifying Public Health before large gatherings may be required to reduce future super-spreading events in stage three.

Deputy Peter Ferbrache, Civil Contingencies Authority chairman, gave an analogy of looking at Covid-19 in a rear-view mirror in a year’s time.

Covid will still be there but, with all the tools in our box which will undoubtedly develop further, we will be able to live with it, he said, subject to any caveats.