Modelling shows need for 1,500 more homes by 2027

A proposal of building an average of 313 additional units of accommodation each year until 2027 has been made by Environment & Infrastructure and is set to be discussed by the States.

E&I president Lindsay de Sausmarez said that the data from the updated States Strategic Housing Indicator will help the committee to understand the extent to which housing need is being met.

‘I’d like to stress that the housing indicator is not a target. We are not saying that we must build over 1,500 homes,’ she said.

‘This is an indicator that helps us understand the extent to which Guernsey’s housing need is being met, and is a very useful tool not just for developers but also for the Development & Planning Authority as they consider planning policies and Employment & Social Security as they consider the development of affordable housing.’

The indicator is set at 1,565 new units of accommodation between 2023 and 2027, consisting of 844 private units and 721 of affordable housing.

Data from the rolling electronic census to identify and contextualise existing households, and population projections to forecast the number and structure of future households, are used to estimate the island’s housing need.

This has resulted in a projected requirement for 62 one-bedroom properties, 716 two-bedroom properties, 53 three-bedroom properties and 13 four-bedroom properties.

The new indicator is 186 units per year higher than the current one, to support efforts to increase supply and help to address the issues experienced across the market.

‘Since housing need surveys were introduced in Guernsey in 2002, we have generally been reliant on external consultants to calculate the indicator for housing need,’ said Deputy de Sausmarez.

‘It’s brilliant that, for the first time, we are able to carry out this work in-house, without the need to request any additional funding from the States. Another huge benefit of our in-house model is that is makes it possible to review our housing need on a yearly or as-needs basis.’

The States has more influence over the delivery of affordable housing units with the control over funding for site acquisition and development costs, and therefore is significantly more accountable for its delivery.