OPINION: More blood, toil, tears and sweat as war shows no sign of ending

I HAVE nothing to offer you but blood, toil, tears and sweat.

This was part of Churchill’s speech on 13 May 1940 when his all-party government was voted in by the House of Commons. The speech didn’t provide a time frame for victory and the same cannot be demanded of the war in Ukraine. The spring, then summer and now autumn offensive hasn’t made the strategic breakthrough of the multiple Russian defensive lines.

This isn’t a lack of resources, although military commanders will always want more, nor is it a reflection of the bravery and commitment of the Ukrainian Army, although they are still to develop the capability to deliver cohesive all-arms manoeuvre warfare. Rather it is a reflection that despite modern technology the real nature of war doesn’t change. It was, is, and will remain violent, terrifying, competitive, complex and chaotic. Offensive operations are more difficult than defending and, at its heart, it is fundamentally a battle of wills between the belligerents. So, it is therefore realistic, albeit frustrating, that the timetable for the Ukraine counter-offensive, as we saw during the initial Russian invasion, cannot be determined with certainty and is proceeding more slowly than we all hoped.

The delay in the launch of the counter-offensive, slipping as it did from spring to summer, is undoubtedly due to the Ukrainian desire to be as prepared as possible. Despite this they haven’t been able to build overwhelming military power, but in attempting to do so, it has resulted in the loss of a considerable amount of the fighting season. The fighting season is a term the British Army has used in recent campaigns to represent the months when fighting was easiest, without inclement weather or other cultural or religious clashes. In about a month the weather in southern Ukraine will turn, it will become colder, wetter and the hard soil of summer will turn into a quagmire of mud of autumn and then the snow of winter.

The imminent end of the fighting season means that the war in Ukraine is now unlikely to be concluded this year. Both sides will now look to consolidate and dig in, prepare additional reserves and defences in preparation for the fighting that will now need to occur in 2024. This will be disappointing to us all and more so for the people and citizen soldiers of Ukraine but this is a strategic reality so, as Churchill said, they must accept more blood, toil, tears and sweat for at least another year.

For us in the West, we will need to maintain our commitment to support Ukraine, supply more weapons, continue to mitigate the impact of the cost-of-living crisis and remain a stoic friend to Ukraine for another year. From a geo-strategic perspective this may be challenging given the US and UK elections are both next year and domestic politics will often be seen as more important, in terms of winning votes, than a war in a foreign country.

Part of the reason for my absence in writing an article over the last few weeks was due to my summer leave. No relaxing on a Mediterranean beach for me, rather I rode my motorbike to the Baltic States with some friends. I visited the Kaliningrad and Belarus borders (the Suwałki Gap that I have previously written about) and rode around eastern Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.

The peoples of these countries were warm, welcoming, and European. I deliberately use the word European because after 20 years of integration into the EU they are now far more western in outlook and ambition. Most spoke English, have the same hopes and aspirations we have, and see the period of Soviet domination as lost years and lost generations. They aren’t a foreign people, in a far-off foreign land and I hope the politicians in London, Brussels and Washington recognise this.

My overwhelming sense was these were people worth fighting for, worth suffering the impact of the cost-of-living crisis, and we cannot, and must not, turn our back on them as we shamefully did to the people, especially the women, of Afghanistan.

So, while it might appear that all I have to offer is blood, toil, tears and sweat that isn’t quite correct. I also offer a view that this fight is the right and morally correct thing to do.

Slava Ukraini (Victory to Ukraine).