Air links debate will have to wait until next States term

But that is unlikely to affect talks about the States providing financial backing for a new Guernsey-Heathrow service which could be launched in the autumn.

Economic Development president Neil Inder conceded that time had run out for his committee to present the States with a review of its air transport licensing policy statement.

‘The review was initially supposed to be returned to the States by 2023, at the end of a five-year period, and this work has been delayed primarily due to Covid,’ said Deputy Inder.

‘Ahead of carrying out any review, the committee needs to ensure that there is a stabilised environment on which to base such important decisions in relation to air transport licensing.

‘Other factors, such as Flybe’s collapse in 2020 and Aurigny’s black swan events throughout 2024, are further destabilising factors.’

In May 2024, Economic Development said it was aiming to submit its policy letter to the States by the end of the year. In January a further statement made no mention of deferring the debate beyond June’s general election.

Deputy Inder said his committee had approached the review in the right way. It is understood to have a substantial body of work to hand over to its successor.

‘The committee has taken its responsibility to review air transport licensing seriously, and has diligently focused on ensuring economic growth while taking into consideration the wider impact of any proposed changes to the air transport licensing policy may have on the island,’ he said.

The delayed review covers only lifeline routes licensed by the States – Gatwick, Southampton and Alderney.

An ‘open skies’ approach applies on other routes, even where the service could have a detrimental effect on lifeline routes, which means that any airline could start a service to Heathrow ahead of the air policy debate, and without going through the States’ licensing procedures.

However, the president of the States’ Trading Supervisory Board, which oversees the States’ ownership of Aurigny, has called for different procedures to apply.

‘I can fully understand why many people would be delighted to see a return of air links with Heathrow, but given the possible consequences I believe that any such proposal should involve widespread political debate and sign off,’ said Deputy Roffey.

‘This is not just speculation. We pretty much know from experience what will happen from the experiment of subsidising Flybe on the Heathrow route back in 2019.’

That service operated for about a year with a public subsidy of more than £800,000.

Economic Development estimated that it brought about £3.3m. into the local economy. It also hit Aurigny’s finances by tempting passengers away from the States-owned airline’s London routes.

‘Should Aurigny become unviable as a result of losses on its core market, brought about by subsidised competition, then it is very hard to see how Guernsey, with its small market size, could regain the sort of connectivity we currently enjoy with destinations other than London,’ said Deputy Roffey.

‘Places like Paris, Dublin and all of the regional UK airports – a level of connectivity praised in a recent report by Frontier Economics commissioned by Economic Development.

‘Alternatively, if Guernsey wanted to retain all of that connectivity provided by Aurigny, while at the same time deliberately cannibalising its core route, the States would probably have to revisit its strategic instruction to the airline to aim to operate on a break-even basis.’

Various States committees are understood to be considering financial and operational options to support the relaunch of a Guernsey-Heathrow service.

At present, the airport is believed to offer discounts on operating fees only for services which do not take passengers away from a lifeline route.