The 2026 intake in States schools could end up as much as 10% smaller than the 2025 intake, once factors such as the buy-out rate to private colleges are taken into account, based on previous years’ data.
There are 442 children currently registered to start in reception at States primary schools in 2026, compared to 465 in the current year group, and 523 just five years ago – the equivalent of three whole classes more.
Despite the latest figures indicating that the number of spare places in a year group could hit 250 for the first time, the Education, Sport & Culture Committee still intends to delay a long-awaited review into closing or merging schools until the second half of the political term.
And deputies who previously wanted that work expedited have backed away from an amendment which may have forced the committee’s hand at next week’s debate on the Government Work Plan.
‘The committee has been in conversation with our counterparts in Jersey and the Isle of Man, both of which are experiencing similar population trends and, as a result, falling school entry numbers,’ said ESC president Paul Montague.
‘Each jurisdiction is exploring its own responses, and our main focus is on ensuring that educational outcomes are not adversely affected by any decisions taken.
‘It is also important to recognise that this is not solely an education issue.
‘Declining birth rates affect the islands more broadly and must therefore be considered in a holistic way.’
The committee said recently that its review of primary schools would be influenced by the location of new housing, and at the planning inquiry which concluded yesterday, there were pleas to allow more residential development in parts of the south and west of the island where unfilled school places are at their highest.
The senior constable of St Peter’s, Tim Langmead, told the public hearing that La Houguette Primary School could be at risk of closure unless housing developments were allowed of a type which would make the parish more affordable for young families, and similar representations were made by other speakers about Forest Primary School.
Falling rolls have reduced the number of classes per year group at several schools in recent years, including La Houguette, St Martin’s, Castel, Vale and Hautes Capelles. ESC will not know whether any such adjustments are necessary from September until finalising late registrations, buy-outs to the colleges and out-of-catchment requests.
‘At this stage, it is too early to confirm how pupils will be allocated across our schools. However, in line with our usual timeline, we expect to be able to share this information by late May or early June,’ said Deputy Montague.
ESC declined to answer questions about whether the number of children registered for any school had dropped below 10, 15 or 20.
Policy & Resources president Lindsay de Sausmarez led amendments during the previous States term which tried unsuccessfully to direct ESC to carry out the review of primary schools which it was originally meant to have completed by 2022 at the latest.
Deputy de Sausmarez said yesterday that she still believed it was ‘essential to carry out the review in this term’ but that she and others had decided not to force the issue through an amendment at next week’s GWP debate, having been convinced that ‘ESC is aware of all the issues in this matter and has planned the sequence of its work logically’.