Many licence holders were previously prohibited from living in local market properties below a certain TRP set by the States. But the rules were effectively scrapped when the population management regime replaced the housing control law in 2017.
Home Affairs president Marc Leadbeater revealed that his committee would look again at TRP restrictions as part of a new review of the island’s population policies.
‘We have said to the administrator [of population management] that we want to re-examine TRP restrictions because they protected the lower end of the local market for local people,’ said Deputy Leadbeater.
‘When they fell away, when the population management law came in, that is when our housing problems became extremely focused.
‘If we can somehow re-introduce something to protect that lower end of the local market for local people, all well and good. We are looking at everything.’
TRP rules on licence holders, and other similar restrictions, were at one time seen as important factors in holding down property prices by limiting demand, but in recent years politicians have placed more emphasis on trying to meet demand by increasing the supply of housing, albeit with mixed results.
Prior to the suspension of TRP restrictions, the average purchase price of a local market property was about 13 times an average single person’s earnings. The ratio peaked at more than 16 times in 2023 but has since fallen to nearer its pre-2017 level.
That post-Covid spike in house prices has largely been put down to a period of faster growth in the island’s population. At about the same time, the previous States agreed to plan for an increase in net inward migration to an average of 300 people a year, and that is the overarching population policy now under review by Home Affairs.
Speaking on the latest Guernsey Press Politics Podcast, Deputy Leadbeater called it ‘the toughest issue’ facing his committee.
‘We need to balance the interests of the business community and the wider community, which is going to be very tricky,’ he said.
‘Business wants more people in and generally the community wants fewer people in. We need to try and strike that balance.’
His committee has brought forward the start of the policy review by one year to make sure it can recommend any changes before the end of the political term in 2029. It has commenced an initial phase of work looking at whether changes are needed to policies relating to employment permits.
‘The employment permit policy means people can come to Guernsey and accommodate wider family members, which puts pressure on public services and housing,’ said Deputy Leadbeater.
‘We’ve got to be sure that we’re not letting in too many people on that list and that the list remains relevant to support the economy.’
Home Affairs has started collecting the views of business groups and will go out to wider public consultation in due course.
Problems with IT systems have left the States’ collection of data out of date, including population statistics, which Deputy Leadbeater said ‘certainly does not help’ at the start of such a major policy review.