Education, Sport & Culture has been considering a range of alternative options since the States effectively paused plans for a new Sixth Form Centre at Les Ozouets when the estimated cost soared towards £50m.
The committee will soon have made enough progress to announce how it will move beyond the temporary set-up for A-level studies at the former La Mare de Carteret High School.
‘The committee is actively looking at future arrangements for the Sixth Form Centre and will be sharing a more detailed plan for moving towards a final decision soon,’ said ESC president Paul Montague.
As his committee tries to resolve the uncertainty it inherited from the previous States, one factor it faces is an ongoing decline in the number of students.
Updated projections shared with the committee late last year, and provided to the Guernsey Press on request last week, indicate that secondary school year groups, which have already been shrinking, could have 100 students fewer in 10 years’ time.
The island’s plummeting birth rate in recent years suggests that sixth formers educated by the States, who currently number about 350 at any one time, having been well over 400 only a few years ago, could fall below 300 and possibly even towards 250 over the next 15 years.
Despite the striking projected decline in numbers and having to rethink previous plans for a Sixth Form Centre at Les Ozouets, Deputy Montague indicated that his committee would not revisit the model of secondary education agreed by the previous States in 2021, namely three 11-16 schools and a separate sixth form centre.
‘The last thing the island’s secondary education system needs is another wholesale structural review,’ he said.
‘Stability is vital for the sector and allows teachers to focus on teaching and supporting students.
‘The committee is very conscious that the projected reduction in pupil numbers will have an impact on our education provision. That is unavoidable. However, it is not a simple or immediate equation.
‘We have already seen in the secondary sector how difficult structural change can be and why it must be carefully planned and evidence led. Getting this wrong has long-term consequences for our community and, most importantly, for pupils. We will not rush into decisions of that magnitude.’
ESC declined to say whether it anticipated a States debate on its sixth form recommendations in the first or second half of the political term.
Deputy Montague may be pressed for more information on timing when he faces questions without notice after making an update statement to the States Assembly on Wednesday.