The one exception is Health & Social Care, which said it was now expecting ‘a multimillion-pound overspend’, funding for which will have to be found from the States’ central unallocated budget reserves.
Policy & Resources’ treasury lead Charles Parkinson declined to disclose the States’ overall income and expenditure variations expected this year. He said those figures would become apparent when the senior committee publishes its draft 2027 budget report in about three weeks’ time.
But the seven principal committees’ latest forecasts, which they all openly shared when asked by the Guernsey Press, underlined the challenges of meeting a direction issued earlier this year to cut spending by 1% in real terms in each of 2027, 2028 and 2029.
‘HSC has requested a number of variations to the 2026 budget, including the funding of incremental demand pressures, driven by demographics and complexity, across a number of front-line services,’ said HSC president George Oswald.
‘The single largest cost pressure is off-island acute services, which is driving a multimillion-pound forecast overspend for HSC this year and which then naturally features in the budget submission for 2027.
‘It is important to note that the committee is seeking funding to improve efficiencies in our delivery, including support for digital projects, and continuing our drive towards prevention initiatives. In the long term, these should deliver savings.’
Using central unallocated budget reserves to fund some rising off-island health care costs should allow HSC technically to record a break-even financial position by the end of the year without shattering the States’ overall spending plans in 2026.
The three committees forecasting smaller overspends against their 2026 budgets are Home Affairs, Housing, and Education, Sport & Culture.
Their forecast overspends total just over £800,000, roughly the same amount as the combined underspends expected at Employment & Social Security, which currently anticipates finishing the year about £600,000 in the black, and Economic Development, which is projecting expenditure of about £220,000 less than originally budgeted.
Adrian Gabriel, president of the final principal committee, Environment & Infrastructure, said he hoped that corrective measures recently agreed would turn a mid-year forecast overspend of about £100,000 into a balanced budget by the end of the year. In percentage terms, Housing is forecasting the next-largest overspend after HSC. The amount, approximately £150,000, represents 1.6% of its budget.
‘The cause of this is principally staff costs and overtime at St Julian’s House, which is a service providing emergency accommodation,’ said Housing president Steve Williams.
‘The committee only assumed responsibility for this service in late 2025, after the 2026 budget had already been agreed.’
Home Affairs’ forecast overspend in 2026 is approximately £488,000, equivalent to 1% of its budget.
‘This is driven by many different factors across multiple service areas,’ said Home Affairs president Marc Leadbeater.
‘Year-to-date spending is broadly in line with budget. However, there are a number of known cost pressures towards the end of the year. The final forecast of the year will take place over the next month to fully reflect the latest run rates, cost pressures and committee priorities.’
ESC is expecting to overspend by about £200,000, which represents 0.2% of its annual budget.
‘This is due to demand-driven costs – pay costs largely associated with individual pupil support and apprenticeship costs – some of which have been offset by projected increases in income and cost reductions elsewhere,’ said ESC president Paul Montague.
ESS president Tina Bury attributed £400,000 of her committee’s forecast underspend to fewer or smaller benefit payments than originally budgeted and the remaining £200,000 to unfilled staff vacancies. The finances of the committee’s social insurance schemes – principally the States’ pension – are managed separately from this general revenue budget.
Economic Development president Sasha Kazantseva-Miller said her committee’s forecast underspend was the result of unfilled vacancies. The figure was calculated at the end of June and would be reviewed again at the end of this month.
It is unclear whether the States will meet an overall savings target for the year of £4m. which was included in the 2026 budget debated by the Assembly last November.
Asked how confident P&R was that the savings target would be met, Deputy Parkinson said: ‘The chief executive has significantly strengthened arrangements for the use of consultants. This has resulted both in the withdrawal of commissions and proposals for the use of consultants to be reconsidered before reaching the chief executive, who must now sign off on all new consultancy spend. A more detailed update will be provided in the 2027 budget.’