Peter Roffey: Catching the wave

‘There is a time in the affairs of men which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in misery.’

There sure is. I think we all understand exactly what Shakespeare was getting at. And not just in the affairs of men either. Exactly the same could be said of Guernsey’s secondary education system.

That is why I was so pleased to see former Education president Martin Ozanne breaking cover a few days ago and warning the island that the States was going down a profoundly wrong path in respect of secondary education, and needed to correct that now, or plough on at their peril stubbornly implementing a deeply suboptimal system.

He was dead right. Many of us have been warning about this for several years. Ever since the island was betrayed by the former Education Committee, after being swept into office by the ‘green ribbon’ campaign, reneging on its promise to carry out an objective review of the options and present the findings to the States. The so-called ‘pause and review’ approach where the review part never happened.

The education model put forward by that committee, in 2021, was the very opposite of evidence-based decision-making. Sadly, it was about as bad a fist as anybody could have made of selecting the best system for the island. Choosing an expensive or even unaffordable model but which was great educationally would have been problematic given financial pressures on the public purse. Choosing a cost-effective model with more compromises educationally would have been understandable but short-sighted. But to have asked the States and the island to go down a path which not only involved huge educational compromises but was also very expensive really did beggar belief.

I am convinced that any other States Assembly would have thrown out the model proposed by that committee. It should have been directed to complete the review everyone had been promised. The trouble was that in the context of the riven Assembly of 2020-25 the application of logic rarely had a big influence on policy. Even some of those who knew in their heart of hearts that a massive educational clanger had been dropped refused to admit it publicly. It was a policy developed by some of their own tribe and so it demanded loyalty.

In short, the previous States was simply not the right ‘time in the affairs of men’ for anything to be taken at the flood in order to bring about fortune. But I have a real feeling that the flood tide is flowing now and needs to be taken – grabbed even. The new Education, Sport & Culture Committee seems to be refreshingly open-minded and so does the Policy & Resources Committee. As I say, education stalwarts such as former Deputy Ozanne, who had a good track record of getting policies through the States and seeing them through to implementation, have even felt the need to speak up.

Of course, ideally we would not be starting from here, but that is no reason to plough on recklessly regardless. What wrong turn am I talking about to Guernsey’s secondary education system which has caused me such alarm? Just about everything, frankly.

I know that many were upset when Guernsey decided to do away with selection. I profoundly disagree but I can completely respect their view. What had me banjaxed was why those who so strongly supported selection, i.e. one grammar school and three secondary modern schools, as soon as it was lost seemingly wanted to replace it with something which looks far more like a series of secondary modern schools for pupils aged between 11 and 16. It was bad for recruitment, bad for breadth of curriculum, bad for the island’s finances – it was just bad full stop.

Another part of the previous committee’s proposed model which it somehow got through the ‘loyalist’ States, indeed probably the most absurd part of the model, was the idea it could create a cost-effective, standalone sixth form centre for just 300-400 pupils which would make best use of Guernsey’s limited resource of specialist teachers. It was naive at best but really quite reckless.

To be fair, not every supporter of selection reacted in such an illogical way. For example, former deputy Richard Graham was one of the staunchest supporters of the old grammar and secondary modern system when it was voted on in the States in 2016, but once he lost that battle he turned his attention firmly to making its replacement as good as it possibly could be. He drew on the best evidence of what was proven to work elsewhere. Exactly the sort of thing that the prematurely abandoned ‘pause and review’ was supposed to have done. I really hope that if we are seeing an outbreak of common sense from both ESC and P&R they use the compelling evidence that he collated.

A final word on the past. I know a lot of people are exhausted and exasperated with the twists and turns over many years of debate about the future of our secondary education model. I am as well. But as with so many issues which are difficult to resolve some of the lessons which will help us get this right in the end are to be found in decisions, and in some cases such as 2021 in glaring mistakes, of the past. Ignoring all of that increases the risk of more bad decisions being heaped on earlier bad decisions and we can’t afford that as an island.

For the first time in ages I am somewhat optimistic over secondary education in Guernsey, but it is qualified optimism. I get a real sense that this may be a good time in the affairs of men (and women) to take them at the flood and get to a good destination. But my warning to all concerned is that the tide can turn very quickly.

So carpe diem.