The dust has yet to settle on a fairly major shake-up of Guernsey’s air connectivity. We know that from next spring there will be a daily rotation to Heathrow and we await the outcomes of licensing procedures on both the Southampton and Jersey routes.
On top of that we now know that the Economic Development Committee is seriously considering spending yet more taxpayers’ money to tempt other airlines on to new routes, with Luton and Liverpool being openly speculated about. If these do indeed come to pass then the first of those destinations will further diffuse the London market and the second will almost certainly take trade from Manchester.
When, or maybe if, things settle down then how should we measure success? In particular what any changes might have meant for our economy. I suggest there will be two sensible metrics. One of them will be very visible but the other, which in many ways is more meaningful, may well fly under the radar.
The first is simply the total number of air passengers. There is clearly an environmental argument against more people flying to and from Guernsey. But for those whose main focus is the economy it’s pretty much a case of the more bums on seats the better. Is that really the right assessment tool? Not necessarily because not every air passenger is equal when it comes to their economic impact.
Put simply those whose journeys start outside of Guernsey and who come to the island are a big help. Whether it is a business related trip to the island, or simply an incoming tourist, in their own way they boost our economy. Likewise business travel where the starting point is Guernsey is obviously often absolutely essential for Guernsey to have a successful economy.
What is far less convincing is any argument that more islanders flying off on more leisure trips is any sort of economic boost. Indeed in many ways it is the complete opposite, as they choose to spend their hard-earned cash in some else’s economy.
That is not to talk down the desirability of good, and affordable, links to help us go on holiday. I would be a hypocrite to do so, because I go off-island myself quite often. Indeed I may well use the new Heathrow link for an extra journey, and let my fellow islanders pay part of the cost of that trip. So I am certainly not moaning about islanders taking a holiday – good luck to them – but such journeys really can’t, and shouldn’t, be counted as being a boost to the domestic economy.
Is this really likely to be an issue? Is there really likely to be any meaningful shift in the proportion of air journeys starting in Guernsey, as opposed to starting elsewhere? Or between business and leisure travel? I think there is, and not without evidence.
Firstly we have to consider what has happened in the UK. The fascinating graph on this page shows the trends in some of the UK’s major airports over the last five years.
All have seen a big drop in incoming business travel compared with the immediate pre-pandemic period. Likewise with business trips originating in the UK. No real surprise there. The drop off in business travel is well documented. Rather it is the trends going on with leisure travel which are fascinating.
Nearly every UK airport has seen significant drops in incoming leisure travel, except Heathrow which is holding pretty much steady. So where has the recovery in air travel come from? Almost exclusively from an increase in Brits going abroad on holiday.
So will Guernsey be any different, even if we do see an overall increase in air travel? I really doubt it.
In particular I suspect the traffic on the subsidised daily single rotation to Heathrow, which is in the middle of the day, will be very heavily skewed towards islanders going off on holiday. Just as it was the last time we saw subsidised air travel on this route a few years back. I suspect I will not be the only one to say – ‘well, if I can get a cheap ticket, because Mrs Le Page is paying for part of it, then why not?’
Luton too is likely to appeal most to islanders going off on their hols.
I am not a killjoy. I am not suggesting it is a bad thing for islanders to get off the rock for a spell. Far from it. All am saying is that if the political justification for recent steps is summed up by that cliched phrase ‘economic enablement’ then we have to make sure what we are measuring involves just that. You and I going off on holiday is great – I will keep doing it – but I don’t pretend it somehow boosts Guernsey’s economy.
So my plea to all those involved is to measure and measure carefully. Not just headline figures but detailed data. Whether it is Guernsey Ports, the Economic Development Committee or any other interested party. Please don’t just measure overall passenger numbers, but also where those journeys originate. Ideally route by route.
Only then can we put a figure on any economic boost which we may have enjoyed. That in turn should guide future policy in this area.
