‘IF I had a world of my own, everything would be nonsense. Nothing would be what it is because everything would be what it isn’t. And contrary-wise, what it is wouldn’t be, and what it wouldn’t be, it would.’
The author Lewis Carroll (actual name Charles Lutwidge Dodgson) had Alice speak these words in his famous novel in 1865. Fast forward to present day and a much-quoted truism within the rabbit hole that might well be representative of today’s States – ‘It’s never about what it’s about.’ This is deputy shorthand for not taking things at face value, howsoever and by whomsoever presents them.
As we reach the end of the first six months of our new assembly’s tenure, coinciding as it does with the end of the year, I have been reflecting on another author’s seasonal contribution A Christmas Carol (Charles Dickens), where we are transported between the realms of what has been and what might yet be. It doesn’t bode well.
Let’s start with what has been
I don’t think I can remember any new States term that has been plagued by political turmoil to the extent that this one has. It got off to a questionable start, given that nearly 8,000 could-be electors, decided not to bother voting at all and we seem to have ended up with election by Facebook (or maybe TikTok).
Incredibly, almost out of the gate, we had a prominent member of P&R arrested (and bizarrely, we have also ended the year with another also being arrested). Ironically, one of the Assembly’s first acts was to overturn the proposal that any future by-election only be triggered by the loss of three deputies to requiring only one instead. The potential cost to the taxpayer did not seem to matter since much was made about adhering to democratic considerations over such trivial considerations as money. Wonder what those idealist deputies who voted pour are thinking now? But we are squarely within the responsibility of the States Assembly & Constitution Committee here and will return to its role shortly, when we talk about another, more recent, reputational faux pas for the assembly.
The budget debate saw cracks beginning to appear in the facade of a new and more ‘unified’ States as P&R tried to maintain financial order in the face of the inevitable demands of various committees seeking funding for their aspirations. But all would be well, we were told, since this Assembly was going to dial down its previous reliance on external consultants. However, this sounded somewhat hollow, give that P&R itself had retained external ‘experts’ to assist in re-imagining our tax system (yet again). To be fair to them, we did discover later that they did not agree with the request from Economic Development for funding their ‘flight of the Heathrow phoenix’ sequel (although we are yet to find out what that will actually cost). We must presume however, that they did agree to ED’s request to fund two-thirds of the (circa) half a million pounds cost for external consultant(s) to review the options for our finance sector’s future. If this is a reduction in the use of expensive external consultants, heaven only knows what else was planned that didn’t make the cut.
Painting by numbers
It was bad enough that the budget revealed that our structural deficit had soared to £77m. in November. By December that had become £95m. This would be a shocking increase in inflation within a month and it would certainly seem like Treasury might need to replace the batteries in that old Casio calculator.
But the reality was simply that in the space of a month P&R decided to move the goalposts (without mentioning it in the budget debate) and fashion a new fiscal plan that sees required infrastructure investment jump from around 2% to 3% of GDP. I will return to that shortly, since almost in the same breath, P&R announced that we have wasted about £42m. in failed IT-related projects – and the timing of these announcements by the vice-president certainly gives me pause for reflection, and I will explore that next year.
But the bad news keeps coming, especially to Guernsey’s reputation. Out of nowhere, the head of Guernsey Finance (ambassadors for our financial services industry) and a senior employee resigned, apparently following the release of a training video. Next, we are told that their management accounts are not formally presented to the States and the public, which is surprising since ED provides them with £2.5m. grant. I don’t know if they have any sort of SLA or KPIs with Economic Development on which they do report, but it is not unreasonable to expect some sort of public breakdown covering such a huge sum of taxpayer money.
Speaking of Guernsey’s reputation, we have recently lost our independent commissioner for standards (who remains active for Jersey and Alderney) and the appeals commissioner (whose day job is commissioner for standards for the House of Lords). Both resigned following a tortuous debate over a code of conduct complaint where members mainly sought to avoid discussing the alleged abuse of process (detailed in a 95-page report) and focused more upon either their own dealings with our health service or their concerns that suspending the member might set a precedent for any future transgressions themselves.
SACC tell us it may be many months before we have a replacement provision for holding the feet of our elected representatives to the fire. Remember SACC, the committee who encouraged the assembly to replace the loss of a single deputy instead of waiting until three triggered an election? Yep, same people who are responsible for sorting out the mess we are now in without an independent commissioner. If this was that glamfest which is the Eurovision Song Contest, I suspect SACC would be awarded null points for their performance to date.
But let’s close out this section on the ghosts of the assembly’s past with a couple of recent financial nuggets that foreshadow an increase in your utility bills. Guernsey Water has announced it will need to invest £130m. to bring the network up to date. Not the waste water network mind you (no need yet then to mourn the immediate passing of the ‘honeycarts’ we all know so well).
Meanwhile, Guernsey Electricity anticipates at least £100m. investment in our cable links to France. I wish that were the end of the need to invest in our energy infrastructure, but it isn’t. The electricity strategy called for around £600m. of future investment – and that was not the whole story either. It was specifically why I successfully pushed for the word ‘affordable’ to be included in whatever solution we adopted as part of that strategy.
The ghost of the assembly yet to come
‘I fear you more than any spectre I have met tonight!’ Thus spoke Scrooge to the hooded, solemn phantom who allowed him to glimpse a bleak future lest he mend his ways. Islanders should take note as they celebrate with friends and family this Christmas. Unusually, I will give some credit to the chief minister of our sister isle in Jersey for the following very sage advice: ‘We are spending like a big country, regulating like a big country, centralising like a big country. We are a small island. This is not who we are and this is not who we should become.’ Well said, and ditto Guernsey.
We start 2026 with options. We also have many, many challenges – several of them exerting external pressure on our very unique quality of life, if we permit them the opportunity. The planet is the planet and it will do as it may, but I would advocate that we give immediate consideration to what we as islanders seek for Guernsey (and indeed the Bailiwick) we have known and loved for so long. A lifestyle that we take for granted all to often and which would be envied by many who have far less freedom to alter their circumstances in the way that we do.
There are some glimmers of hope emanating from (of all places), the Guernsey Financial Services Commission's head, William Mason, who urges a pragmatic approach to issues like net zero; a welcome consideration of relaxing any overburdening regulation and a new AI ‘sandbox’ to encourage technological experimentation in financial transactions and platforms. At the other end of the scale, the new ‘fiscal plan’ offered by P&R offers nothing more than a wish list framework with no suggestions as to how we can achieve the necessary funding for it to matter.
In closing, if I were Tiny Tim, I would advise we pay close attention to these three ‘Ps’ next year: personal freedom, privacy, and pragmatic governance.
‘God bless us, every one.’
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