Further easing of lockdown could be three weeks away

The island is currently in phase two, and three tests have been set out which will have to be passed over a four-week rolling period before the Bailiwick can move into phase three.

These tests are stable or reducing numbers of Covid-19 cases acquired through unexplained community transmission, no new clusters of infections, and stable or decreasing hospital admissions for the virus.

However, there are five benchmarks, or triggers, which could push the Bailiwick back into a stricter lockdown.

These include more than ten cases of community seeding, the identification of new clusters, and evidence that the community is not complying with social distancing and hygiene requirements.

The statistics show that the virus is in retreat in Guernsey, but the authorities still need to walk a tightrope between keeping a lid on any new spread and rebooting the economy.

The initial 16-page exit strategy is not a calendar and there are no specific dates.

It sets out the how, but not the when.

Further information will be unveiled this week to flesh out the roadmap, and Deputy Heidi Soulsby, the president of Health & Social Care, stressed that it was a ‘live, iterative document’, which would change over time.

The next steps outlined are:

n Phase 3 – further easing of lockdown with a progression towards a more normal level of activity within the Bailiwick

n Phase 4 – more economic activity, including the reopening of non-essential shops, hotels, hairdressers and beauticians, but with social distancing and hygiene measures

n Phase 5 – bars and nightclubs allowed to open, and possibly travel between the islands of the Bailiwick

n Phase 6 – borders with the UK, Europe and elsewhere reopen

The idea is that at each phase the impact will be carefully evaluated before moving onto the next, and the health data could even dictate that a step backwards is necessary.

States chief executive Paul Whitfield explained that it would be important to take stock at every stage.

‘The clear guidance given by the director of Public Health is that we hold the constraints for a period of time to get the assurance that’s needed so we can move to the next phase, which means less restrictions, and actually if you look at how we are moving through this consecutively that could be as close as three weeks away when we go to the next phase.’

Along with this staged release from lockdown, the exit strategy also includes the three strands of testing, contact tracing and quarantine.

Moving forward, the director of Public Health, Dr Nicola Brink, said the testing strategy would evolve to include proactively looking for positive cases within groups which are considered to be at higher risk.

Antibody tests have been purchased and they are due to arrive on the island in the next week or so.

These tests will not be the finger prick home kits, they will be laboratory-based so that Public Health can continue to monitor all the data.

More details will be announced on the expanding testing strategy this week and Dr Brink described it as a ‘very exciting programme’.

Mandatory mask wearing is unlikely to form part of island’s exit strategy because Dr Brink said she remained ‘fairly neutral’ on the issue.

‘This is a team effort’ Page 4