I remember now, and poignantly, a speech I made when I was chief minister, shortly after the invasion of Ukraine, urging the States of Guernsey to support the good people of Ukraine in their mammoth struggle with their Russian invaders. That proposal received overwhelming support. Support that is needed just as much today.
The USA, to whom the free world owes so much, has a new administration, and is taking a different view to its predecessor. It is saying enough is enough. Europe has sheltered under the protection afforded by the USA for too long, expecting the US taxpayer to continue to meet the full security bill for the free world. Now, despite, and possibly because of what I found to be the appalling and discourteous treatment of the Ukrainian president in the White House, I and others have to realise that we now will have to live with a new reality.
I have always been pro-American and although I am now, after what I saw recently, somewhat less so, the free world will have to accept that new reality. That long preamble is intended to be saying the same thing for this Bailiwick.
We are so fortunate to live here and we all want the marvellous benefits we enjoy and environment we live in to be continued. There are difficulties that we face that can no longer be ignored. There are no easy answers. Beware of those that say there are.
It is human nature to believe that either there are really no major problems we face, or that the solutions that could be offered should involve sacrifices and payments by others. If people say that, and there is an election in June when many will make such promises, do not believe them. We live in a democracy and you as a voter can cast your vote for people making such promises. If you do, fine, but be prepared then to accept the consequences.
The truth is that we are spending more than we earn. We have a structural deficit. That is something that cannot be easily cured. It means we have to both increase our revenues and spend less. There is now factored into our future tax revenues both £30m. per annum from something called Pillar 2, which in shorthand terms is some supposedly worldwide tax on large companies, and GST. Both come with some caution.
Just a few days before I lost my position in a vote of no confidence, I was told, as I regularly had been, that the maximum tax take from Pillar 2 was in the order of £10m. per annum. That apparently has changed and the same advisers have said something different, and if they are correct I am delighted.
We have already counted it in this year’s tax receipts when the earliest it will be received will be 2027. President Trump also may not follow the principles that allow such tax to be levied – so it is not yet and may never be in that amount in the bank.
GST was something I and others hated the idea of putting forward. We really hoped it would not be necessary, but we saw no alternative. The States Assembly decided otherwise.
Deputy Trott and Deputy Soulsby voted against it on more than one occasion. People marched in protest in Market Square. Some deputies waved flags and sang, somewhat out of tune, Sweet Caroline and We Will Rock You.
Now Deputy Trott and Deputy Soulsby and some others have seen the light and in the event the States approved its passage. It will though be mooted by some as unnecessary. Fair enough, and if voters believe it can be dispensed with they will vote accordingly. They will be told there are alternatives and there is no need to introduce it. If so, those so saying should spell out in detail the alternatives. We certainly need to look into at least some of the corporate tax reforms I see being suggested by Deputies Parkinson and McKenna.
I would be very interested to know in particular what detailed suggestions Deputy McKenna is suggesting. Those, though, will not alone take us to the promised land. At the moment we have no idea what such reforms will yield. The principle is a good one, but like all things, the detail will be more difficult. If you think that is the sole solution, vote accordingly.
We have also heard much of wind farms. Despite one deputy seeking to rewrite history, I have and remain supportive of this. Again though, we have to be alive to its challenges. President Trump recently described them as ‘windmills’ and was dismissive. A CEO of one of the world’s great oil companies has said they will, from a target of 40% for energy that can be recycled, reduce that to zero. Nonetheless we should continue to pursue this option at the moment, but it will not in any event give early revenues, and even when it does, we know not what they may be. Bills have to be paid today, not tomorrow.
Cost-cutting must also be an option, but whenever it was tried it has faced howls of anger from various factions of our community – depending on which group has been affected.
Deputy Trott recently announced that there will be a fundamental review of the services the States provides and the cost to the taxpayer. If it is to work, it must not be conducted internally.
I am sure people will remember the published paper on reducing the cost of public services which was a sub-committee report. It was useless and nothing at all of any note emanated from it – despite the fact that two of its members were Deputies Meerveld and Vermeulen. I am sure they will have reasons for nothing really happening, but I have yet to hear a convincing one. Readers again will remember these were two of the deputies shaking their limbs to We Will Rock You in Market Square.
We will need more than the shaking of limbs and populist utterances of middle-aged men to solve our problems. I want to say some more, but a good friend of mine advises me that sometimes my contributions are too long, and so I may write further in due course.
I conclude by saying remember those travelling salesmen in Western movies who sold lotions and potions which purported to give easy cures for all sorts of ills. That did not work then, and will not work now.
