Andy Sloan: Time to get ‘yippee’

If you’ve ever thought to yourself, ‘What I really need right now is another column by Andy Sloan’, then (a) I worry for you, and (b) you’re in luck. Not only is this one fresh off the digital press, but you can get more where that came from. This Is What A Rich Death Feels Like – the book – is real, printed, and being launched next week. It’s a collection of some of my columns on economics, politics, and sustainability over the last four years.

As the book cover says, it’s a sharp, unsentimental account of political drift, fiscal indecision, and institutional decay – told through the fiercely argued columns of economist and commentator Dr Andy Sloan. That’s yours truly. The launch is Monday morning at Les Cotils. John Fernandez has gamely agreed to chairing the event and grilling me on the book’s contents. And there’s a free copy for all who turn up. What’s not to like?

So what’s it about? Well, Guernsey – obviously. Again, to quote the cover: ‘Sloan chronicles how a small, wealthy island lost its strategic edge, hollowed out by complacency, paralysed by process, and increasingly obsessed with redistribution over growth. What emerges is a portrait of a jurisdiction living beyond its means – politically, economically and intellectually.’ Strong stuff, eh?

So why do it? Why publish what the editor described as ‘Richard Graham but without the laughs’? Why now?

I’ll be frank: it’s a tad egotistical. But the academic in me likes being credited for his ideas. And ahead of the period of reinvention, recycled promises, and recycled opinions – otherwise known as the 2025 General Election – I wanted to get a few things on the record. Things I’ve been banging on about for years, in fact. And buried in the sarcasm and cynicism, I’ve often slipped in a bit of quality analysis – but when it’s wrapped up in a monthly column, it’s easy to miss.

So this collection serves a purpose. I’ve gathered the best columns, added a few extra reflections, and drawn out what I think – perhaps even subconsciously – are the core themes behind them. I’ve even gone as far as to propose three things we need to fix to get our politics and economy back on track. But you’ll have to buy a copy to find out what they are. Or come to the launch Monday.

But enough of that. Back to today’s column. What’s new to discuss? Since this column is, allegedly, about economics, politics, and sustainability, global economics seems as good a place as any to start. So: tariffs. The economic topic currently on everyone’s lips – though it already feels like it’s been there forever.

Yes, Trump’s tariffs. What do they mean for the global economy?

Everyone’s talking about it. And I do mean everyone. I went to the driving range the day after Liberation Day and was probed on the topic by the resident professional. Big shout-out to Andy Myers. Mind you, it was a thankless question: what’s the likely impact on Guernsey?

I felt like one of those visiting economists who get the mic shoved under their nose and asked, ‘And what does that mean for Guernsey?’ Truth is, like them, I’ve no idea. Still, I blathered on with enough waffle and misdirection that hopefully Andy didn’t notice.

Because honestly I haven’t even figured out what I think this all means for the global economy. After upending Europe’s post-WWII security arrangements with a broadside against freeloading Europeans, a public dressing-down of Ukraine, and a cosy-up with Russia, the Trump administration has now decided to rip up the world trading order with the largest and most lunatic set of global tariffs ever attempted.

Analyse that.

What really spooked the markets – at least initially – wasn’t just the policy (though it was more than enough on its own). It was the dawning realisation that there was no coherent thinking behind it. The clincher? A ten percent tariff on the economy of the penguins and seals of the Heard and McDonald Islands. Until then, people assumed there was still a grown-up in charge somewhere. The big reveal: there isn’t.

Sure, a few things have since been walked back, deferred, or softened once the bond markets got too ‘yippee’. But the damage is done. A rubicon’s been crossed. And a quarter of the way through the 21st century, we might just have witnessed the beginning of the end of the dollar’s global hegemony.

Might take another 25 years – who knows – but I’d bet economic historians will one day circle Liberation Day 2025 and say: that was the day it all began. ‘It was probably a very significant day. I’m sure things will change as a result. Exactly how – only time will tell.’ That’s my big insight. Sorry to disappoint. I clearly missed my calling as a consultant.

Alright, let’s be serious for a second. The bond market’s ‘yippeeness’, as Trump put it, was a seminal moment. Usually, when risk spikes, investors flee to US bonds as a safe haven. Not this time. And that’s awkward for Trump, because $9 trillion of US debt matures this year. Total US debt is around 100% of GDP, and the Congressional Budget Office reckons it’ll hit 130% by 2040.

That’s before factoring in the $4.6 trillion cost of making Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent – or the $5-11 trillion cost of the proposed second-term tax cuts, depending which analyst you believe. My oh my. No wonder Trump calls it ‘one beautiful big bill’. He’s not kidding.

As I said to Andy – I think the man might be mad. But I’m certain he’s on a mission. It’s like someone’s taken a good look, done the math and said you know this whole global economic system thing? It’s not sustainable. Let’s change it. Because, if you really think about it, it’s not. And if you really think about it, it’s quite frightening. The most worrying question is whether there is a hidden rationale behind what’s being done or not? And in all that unclarity, the read out for Guernsey?

Yes, back to that question: what does this mean for us, four weeks out from nominations opening for the 2025 General Election?

It’s a complicated, uncertain world. Navigating it as a small island economy with few friends is no mean feat.

I caused a stir at the IOD annual debate for saying this some 15 years ago, doing government isn’t easy. All we can ask is that the States performs the basics competently – something it’s failed to do in several areas for some time – and hope that somewhere we’re lucky enough that some of those with a hand on the tiller are bright and competent enough to plot a steady successful economic course for Guernsey through all this global turbulence. And I use the term economic course deliberately as the greatest determinant of our wellbeing is our wealth.

That’s the job ahead for those we elect this summer. So, when you flick through the 400-page States manifesto, when trying to pick the next crew of our ship of state, do try to keep these thoughts in mind. Because I’d rather not experience a rich death – but continue to survive and prosper, for the next generation and the next. But in the meantime, see you at book launch on Monday.