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Navigating the latest developments in air travel

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has prompted speculation around potential fuel shortages and subsequent flight cancellations. Coupled with rising fuel prices potentially leading to fare surcharges, travellers are understandably apprehensive about upcoming travel. Emma Caseby of Travel Emara gives an overview of the current situation, and what action is being taken to minimise disruption.

‘A significant proportion of UK fuel imports comes from the Middle East, so if the current situation continues and alternative supplies are not sourced then shortages are a possibility.’
‘A significant proportion of UK fuel imports comes from the Middle East, so if the current situation continues and alternative supplies are not sourced then shortages are a possibility.’ / Guernsey Press
Fare Surcharges

With fuel accounting for up to 30% of airline costs, the recent surge in prices has already impacted fares, particularly on long-haul routes via Asia. Closer to home, Aurigny has implemented a temporary surcharge of £2 per passenger per flight, and the CEO of easyJet has indicated that ticket prices are likely to rise by the end of summer.

On a positive note, TUI, easyJet and Jet2 have confirmed a zero-surcharge policy on all booked flights and holidays, meaning the price you pay on booking is guaranteed and will not change. Travellers are being advised to book soon to lock in current rates ahead of anticipated fare increases.

Flight Cancellations

While there have been warnings of shortages if the conflict continues, airlines have reported no immediate jet fuel supply issues since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. British Airways, easyJet, Jet2 and TUI have all confirmed that they do not plan to adjust schedules and are not anticipating any immediate disruption.

Nevertheless, a significant proportion of UK fuel imports comes from the Middle East, so if the current situation continues and alternative supplies are not sourced then shortages are a possibility.

In order to reduce the impact of increasing fuel prices and operate more efficiently, Aurigny has reduced its flight capacity by 12% in April and May, combining Exeter and Bristol routes, reducing the number of London City flights and postponing the new Wednesday Paris flight until June.

German airline, Lufthansa, has also taken more proactive measures, cancelling approximately 2,000 short-haul flights from May up to October. Impacted passengers are being rebooked automatically, or can request a full refund. This represents just 1% of its European schedule and largely impacts high-frequency routes, allowing for quick re-booking.

Government Response

The UK government announced contingency measures last week with the aim of helping airlines operate realistic schedules.

It was agreed that airlines can merge flights in advance without impacting their right to operate their allocated take-off and landing slots the following season. It’s hoped that by allowing airlines to consolidate flights heading to the same destination on the same day, effectively moving passengers from their original booking to a similar one, last-minute cancellations will be minimised and fuel usage reduced.

The independent consumer organisation, Which?, has argued that this measure leans in favour of the airlines, as schedule changes will negatively impact passengers on short trips and those with connecting flights in particular.

Across the channel, the European Commission has introduced an ‘AccelerateEU’ response plan, which is designed to safeguard the continued availability of jet fuel across the European airport network. Measures include mapping fuel supplies across the EU, coordinating alternative sources and optimising distribution to ensure availability across regions and airports.

Booking and Consumer Protection

Under industry regulations, airlines must offer a voucher, refund or a suitable alternative in the event of a flight cancellation. This applies to flights departing from UK airports, arriving in the UK on UK or EU airlines and flights arriving in the EU on UK airlines.

To maximise protection, it’s advisable to book a package holiday rather than arranging flights and hotels separately. Under the Package Travel Regulations, if your flight is cancelled, the provider is responsible for offering a suitable alternative or a full refund for all elements of the holiday.

When bookings are made separately, this protection does not extend to accommodation - there is no obligation for hotels to offer compensation for any amendments or cancellations due to flight disruption.

While this uncertainty can be unsettling if you are planning travel this summer, the government response and proposed contingency measures have been described as an adequate strategy to mitigate potential fuel shortages and widespread disruption. The UK transport secretary has said: ‘I am confident that the majority of people that are travelling this summer will have a similar experience to last year.’

As an independent travel adviser, I can combine flights and accommodation under the Package Travel Regulations, offering greater protection without limiting you to standard package holidays.

  • If you would like further information, advice or holiday inspiration, visit www.travelemara.com.


I was born and raised in Guernsey, attending La Houguette and The Ladies’ College before studying French and Spanish at Bath University in 2010. After graduating, I returned to the island to start a career in banking.

Last year, I launched Emara, an independent travel advisory business. I have always been passionate about travel, particularly solo backpacking trips, and wanted to focus on sharing my knowledge, providing unbiased advice, and creating tailored itineraries. I am accredited by IATA (International Air Transport Association), and operate independently.

I enjoy publishing my weekly newsletter on LinkedIn, where I cover a range of topics from industry insights to destination spotlights. You can read my newsletter here.

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