IN THE summer of 1950 North Korea invaded South Korea and, despite a UN-backed and US-led force being dispatched, they were forced back into what was called the Pusan Perimeter and facing defeat.
That September, a strategic masterstroke by the US-led forces under General MacArthur led to amphibious landings at Inchon (Operation Chromite) and the recapture of Seoul.
This changed the war and took the conflict back onto the original border on the 38th Parallel.
There was a tantalising moment when peace could perhaps have been negotiated, but in October 1950 the UN forces invaded the North and advanced to the Yula River and the border with China in an attempt to reunify the country.
The rest, as they say is history... China intervened, forcing the UN to withdraw, and then after a three-year stalemate, the Korean Armistice was finally agreed in 1953 with a demilitarised zone back on the 38th Parallel.
There is a saying that ‘history doesn’t repeat itself but it sure does rhyme’. Does Ukraine face a similar position today? A choice not about what is fair or right, but unfortunately what is realistic and unfair?
In the first weeks of the invasion, many commentators, myself included, saw a very real chance of a swift Russian victory and a fait accompli being presented to the remnants of whatever was left of the Ukrainian government; the equivalent of being in the Pusan Perimeter.
The bravery of the Ukrainian forces, the unity of the West, the swift delivery of next-generation weaponry prevented the imminent defeat, and this was a strategic masterstroke.
It reshaped the whole war and brings us to today – the equivalent of Operation Chromite. The risk of Kyiv being overrun or flattened is no longer there, the Russians have refocused on a fresh assault on the Donbas, but critically we are not at peace either.
Putin has not won but equally he has not lost. President Zelensky and the people of Ukraine have not lost, they are operating with greater confidence and with greater support, but they have not won either.
So what does the West and Ukraine do now? Do they stay on the defensive, which in a large part they must do, if they only have defensive weaponry supplied by the West. Or if they can convince the West to supply offensive weapons, including tanks and armoured vehicles, do they move to offensive operations and try and recapture the territory they have lost, the Donbas and perhaps even the Crimea? Do they feel confident enough to metaphorically advance to the Yula River, as the UN did in 1950?
A few strategic words of caution, and this is where cool heads balance the heart. Ukraine is clearly wronged and Putin is the aggressor, but the risks of uncontrolled escalation remain and are perhaps more likely now than several weeks ago.
Offensive operations to recapture Russian-speaking areas could draw a far greater Russian response. Putin continues to have substantial strategic reserves and if he was allowed to reframe the war as protecting the Motherland, that has very real risks and consequences.
For Ukraine, we have seen that defensive operations can be effectively fought by a civilian army; offensive operations cannot without great risk and significant loss of life. Offensive operations require combined-arms operations with a degree of professionalism, coordination and control that Ukraine may not possess without direct Western strategic and operational advisers. Which, of course, further adds to the risk of an escalation with Putin reframing this as a Nato operation against the Motherland.
This may be the choice over the next few weeks. It is a ‘devil’s alternative’ which so often is the reality in war.
I might wish that geopolitical decisions should be fair but, I regret, that isn’t the real world. Putin continues to seem detached from reality and unpredictable. But Ukraine and the West need to take stock – the situation now, while deeply shocking and brutal, is far better, from a military and political perspective, than almost everyone night have thought it would be a few weeks ago.
We are back on the 38th Parallel, and while we may want to advance to the Yula River and reunify the country, let us at least take note of a lesson from history.
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