Hautes Capelles will become the latest school to shrink to single-form entry and Castel will drop back to one class, alongside Forest, La Houguette, Notre Dame and St Mary & St Michael, as the total number of children starting school hits a new low.
As schools get smaller, class sizes are set to continue growing, with the average reception class containing 24 children from September, up from 22 two years ago, and five of the States’ 11 mainstream schools operating with an average class size of 26 children or more.
Deputy Lindsay de Sausmarez said the States would have to respond to ‘the clear consequences’ of a sharply falling birth rate, just days ahead of her committee, Policy & Resources, publishing an update on committees’ search for efficiency savings, albeit she was speaking on this issue as an individual deputy.
‘Fewer classes in each year group almost inevitably means larger class sizes,’ she said.
‘This September, two primaries I remember as three‑form entry schools will each have just a single reception class, with 27 and 28 pupils. That is a seismic shift in just a decade.
‘At the same time, falling rolls are creating growing economic inefficiencies across the sector. This affects teachers and children alike, and ultimately limits how effectively we can invest in primary education.’
Education president Paul Montague was unavailable yesterday, but is expected to comment next week on the latest admissions figures.
Deputy Montague’s Education, Sport & Culture Committee has pushed back a review of the primary phase into the second half of the political term, increasing the possibility of a States debate on merging or closing schools not long before the 2029 general election.
The most recent primary school to close was St Andrew’s, a decade ago, generating savings estimated by Education to be worth about £600,000 annually.
Deputy de Sausmarez, whose own children are at States schools, said ESC deserved credit for continuing to provide a good standard of education in challenging circumstances which it was working hard to respond to as soon as possible.
‘The focus of ESC’s primary review will rightly be on improving outcomes and opportunities for children. However, we cannot ignore the economic impact of this demographic change – this growing inefficiency is not financially sustainable for the island,’ she said.
‘There is a win-win opportunity, though. If we can run the sector more efficiently, we can invest more effectively in our children’s education, improving both value for money and educational outcomes while also reducing pressure on the public purse.’
There will be two primary schools with three reception classes from September, St Martin’s and Vale. Amherst, which has three at present, will drop to two classes from September.
La Mare de Carteret and Vauvert will also operate with two reception classes, as they are currently.
The largest average reception classes will be at Castel, with 29 children, Hautes Capelles, with 28, and La Houguette, with 27. The smallest will be at La Mare de Carteret, with 35 children split between two classes, and St Mary & St Michael, with 19 in a single class.