Opinion: Guernsey’s Schitt’s Creek

That potential get-out-of-jail card was always a non-starter and floated by P&R in a desperate attempt to avoid recognising the blindingly obvious – that they’re not up to the job facing them.

I mean no personal criticism of the individuals themselves but the sad fact is that, collectively, they have been unable to lead the island through an exceptionally difficult and fractured time. In turn, that’s a legacy of the first, rather disastrous experiment with island-wide voting, the bitter and factional way the chief minister was elected, and that old political favourite, events dear boy, events.

But what this failure of leadership isn’t is a failure of the system of government itself, for all Deputy Ferbrache and his colleagues might protest the absence of executive or cabinet authority.

Step back, and instead you see P&R consistently misreading the room. Blind Freddie* knew GST was dead in the water yet P&R insisted on pressing ahead with its doomed initiative and refused to acknowledge that other, well worked up, alternatives existed. In short, no compromise, no consensus. Alas, no judgment.

Arrogance or political naivety? Well, you decide, but the lack of experience in this Assembly, thanks to the 2020 pick-and-mix lottery election is obvious, and we’re paying the price for that.

That price, incidentally, is huge. In a July update, ratings agency S&P Global estimated that half a billion has been wiped off Guernsey’s assets. Those stood at 102% of GDP in 2022 and are now down to 53%, in part through drawing down to fund revenue spending and the deficit.

So where are we now? Bluntly, to borrow a phrase from a Canadian TV show this time, up Schitt’s Creek. As Deputy Charles Parkinson put it, we have a zombie government and a P&R with no credibility. So up said creek with no paddle. And, alarmingly, no captain either.

It’s why Deputy Parkinson was waiting to see whether P&R resigned or needed to be pushed via his motion of no confidence, which he will now pursue in the States if they don’t. Before looking at the consequences of that, however, it’s worth recapping on how bleak things are for the island.

The gap between those doing OK and those who aren’t, I’d suggest, is the widest its been since the war, exacerbated by the cost-of-living crisis and especially the housing shortage, leading to stratospheric rents and mortgage payments. Ordinary Guernsey is groaning.

Government spending – and therefore demand for more tax from already hard-pressed islanders – is out of control at the same time as the economy is flatlining (so no growth to generate more States revenues) and the number in work is declining. S&P also expects unemployment to rise over the next three years, so that’s also less income tax collected and more benefit payments going out.

The consequences of an ageing population have been well documented, as is the island’s reluctance to consider immigration to expand the workforce. But – and here’s the rub – even if alleged man of action Neil Inder’s Committee for Economic Decline roused itself and went for growth, there’s nowhere for new staff to live. Come to that, there are already between 1,000-2,000 vacancies, so work that could come here is being turned away. Yep, we’re turning down business and helping our competitors.

These problems aren’t all at the door of this P&R, of course. Gavin St Pier highlighted in his 2019 Review of the Fiscal Policy Framework and Fiscal Pressures some £71m. to £124m.-worth of extra costs and lost revenues of £8m. that had built up on his watch, because there are no meaningful curbs on States’ expenditure or committee ambitions. If the vote of no confidence does go ahead and is successful – as several sources say it will be – what next? Any caretaker P&R and chief minister emerging have considerable problems with limited time or resources to make much of a difference.

For me, the number one issue is confidence – persuading islanders that, after all, government does know what it is doing and can do what it says. In turn, that means bridging some of the divisions and setting the scene for a convincing and emergency solution to the housing crisis. That’s key to easing the island’s staffing issues and generating some economic growth.

That issue of credibility extends to Education, which, to put it mildly, has also lost its way and in any other Assembly the committee would also be facing a vote of no confidence. It also includes trying to get some much-needed investment into the island’s infrastructure which, as you’ll recall, was the trigger for this focus on government finances and the deficit.

All in all, a tall order for any caretaker P&R and chief minister, and crying out for some previous skill and experience and a willingness to try to bring factions together. The stakes are also high. Not only has S&P threatened to downgrade the island’s credit rating still further if government assets continue to erode through financial mis-management, the UK is also keeping an eye on our faltering attempts at good governance.

So if P&R has any sense, its members will go quietly and help the new team put a Guernsey rescue plan in place with foundations solid enough to survive the general election in 2025.

If not…

*noun. Australian informal: An imaginary person representing the highest degree of incompetence (esp in the phrase Blind Freddie could see that!)