In December 2024 I wrote an article for the Guernsey Press called ‘Make Guernsey Great Again’. It argued that Guernsey had not escaped the economic stagnation, rising living costs, voter disillusionment and rise of populism that have followed the 2008 crash across the developed world. I warned that islanders who felt ignored might look for their own populist candidate, a local Donald Trump. Some evidence of this already appears among politicians who shun committee work and measure success by Instagram likes rather than evidence-backed decision-making.
Since then I have dug into the figures, and our growth compared with our rivals is even more anaemic than I had appreciated. Between 2013 and 2023 our economy grew by 0.6 per cent a year in real terms, against 2.0 per cent for the OECD, 1.6 per cent for the UK and 2.3 per cent for Jersey. Had we kept pace with our island rivals, we would have had £103m. a year more to spend by 2023, enough to cover the £47.8m. deficit in the 2026 Budget twice over.
The consequences of this simultaneous stagnation and soaring living costs are clear to see: food banks, sofa surfing, homelessness. Yet, in many ways, the worst symptom is the disillusionment and loss of trust between our politicians and everyday islanders. Last year 93 per cent of islanders told Island Global Research they have little or no influence over States decisions. I had my team analyse 5,430 public Facebook comments about politics since 2022 – 74 per cent were negative, against 33 per cent on other subjects.
Even so, the scorecard shows that most of our deputies do a commendable job. Together, they kept 345 of the 366 promises we could test against a vote, and 35 of the 38 deputies have no promises ruled broken. A small minority lets them down. Admittedly, we are still early in the political term. But if you ask the average person on the street how many promises were likely to have been broken the figure would be much higher.
Opposition to the scorecard has been interesting, and in sharp contrast to Jersey’s. When the Guernsey edition launched, one member of P&R told me it would put people off standing for election. Utter nonsense. What will put off the next generation is joining an Assembly that is perceived to say one thing, but does another, that doesn’t turn up and that achieves little of what it says it will.
That resistance is the exception. Over 50 per cent of deputies have engaged with the scorecard since it launched, some once, some every week, and about half a dozen are actively helping us build an accurate picture of attendance and pledges. They are the reason it is getting better.
The State of the Nation pages exist because, for some reason, the States does not publish its own key indicators for every policy area in one easily accessible place. They are there for islanders and deputies alike. Not every deputy firmly has their finger on the island’s economic pulse. In a meeting with one deputy, I was confidently informed that Guernsey has ‘no debt’. In fact, the States group owed £403.5m. at the end of 2025. The same deputy questioned my comparative growth figures, asserting that Jersey had grown only because it increased its population. Its output rose by about 26 per cent over the decade and its population by about four per cent, so unless every arrival brought a small hedge fund with them, that doesn’t add up.
The scorecard also shows who turns up and what they deliver. The president of the Committee for Housing has arguably the most important job in the States: building the affordable homes islanders are crying out for. He has earned the unenviable distinction of being the deputy who has missed more meetings than he has built affordable homes. In fairness, the bar is low: net additions in 2025 were zero. This year he has missed five of his 23 committee meetings, and has yet to confirm that two holidays he cited were truly booked prior to last year's general election.
Another example is the president of the Committee for Home Affairs who has missed one in five of his committee’s meetings. By our reckoning against the plan’s own timetable, five of his committee’s six work plan workstreams are either behind or severely behind schedule. The one on track is a review of civil contingencies law. So if the fuel runs short and the food runs out, islanders can take comfort that the law for handling it is bang on schedule. Securing our fuel and food supply, however, one of the committee’s first-half priorities, has not even been scoped.
Nobody records the meetings that never happen because too few members turn up to make a quorum. Deputies must embrace transparency to restore trust, and they don’t need our scorecard to do it. Any deputy can match their votes to their promises on their own website, and every committee can publish its attendance, sub-committees included. The day they all do, the scorecard becomes redundant, and I will take it down with pleasure.
Transparency, though, is the easy part. The hard part is the money. The 2027 budget report puts next year’s funding gap at £47m. even after a 1 per cent real-terms cut, with committees asking for £33m. more. The States pension is 87 per cent of benefit spending, projected to rise 74 per cent to about £296m. by 2040, and on the 2020 review, the Guernsey Insurance Fund runs out in 2039. The budget forecasts just 0.5 per cent real growth for 2027.
These major decisions on spending, welfare and growth can no longer be avoided. ‘Efficiency savings’ will not settle them. Choosing between the tougher options will require public confidence in our deputies, and that confidence has to be earned first.
The budget is the real test. Many deputies were ardent champions of budgetary restraint before the election, enough even to make a young conservative blush. The 2027 budget will show whether they keep that pledge or find reasons to spend. Two things are worth remembering when the bids come in. A short-term spending spree will not save anyone from the recriminations over the new GST at the ballot box, because voters will remember the tax and forget the extra committee budget. Talk is cheap, and spending is cheaper when someone else is paying. How a deputy spends other people’s money shows whether the talk of responsibility and discipline was a principle or a campaign slogan.
Our political system is peculiar. Built on gentlemanly agreement, in practice it means inertia. There is no cabinet, so everybody is in charge and nobody is responsible. Lindsay De Sausmarez is faced with an impossible mission and I do not envy her. One potential improvement is increased public scrutiny: each president addressing the Assembly on progress every six months, with the press invited. Deputy David Goy tried that for the Government Work Plan. The States said no, by 23 votes to 12. Worry not, Deputy Goy, the scorecard is here.
Technology has changed the odds. One person can now match and publish manifestos, votes, minutes and attendance in the evenings, so politicians can no longer withdraw behind closed doors. You can’t uninvent the scorecard, and if I stopped tomorrow, someone else would pick it up. Transparency is coming whether the States welcomes it or not. The only choice left is who shapes it. A States that publishes its own votes, attendance and progress sets the terms: which measures count, how they are explained and when they are reported. A States that waits will be measured by others, on their terms, and its failures will arrive as headlines. Leading the change also earns something no press office can buy, which is the benefit of the doubt. Louis Brandeis put the case for it in 1914: ‘Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants; electric light the most efficient policeman.’ The States can open the shutters and switch the lights on themselves.
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