Signs that house prices are bouncing back again
Housing prices continue to be unstable, but rental prices are on a steady rise, the latest quarterly residential property prices bulletin from the States has revealed.
The mix adjusted average purchase price for local market properties was £609,723 in the last quarter – 3.8% up on the previous quarter, but 5.9% lower than the same time last year.
It follows a rollercoaster in property prices over the last two years, with prices rising and falling, which followed a sharp rise in property prices after the pandemic.
There were more than 160 homes sold in the third quarter of this year – 20 more than in the June quarter, and 27 more than in the September quarter of 2023.
Houses are spending longer on the market, with it taking about about seven months for properties to sell, compared with about five months a year ago.
Properties are also selling further away from their asking prices. The final sale price was, on average, 7.2% lower than the maximum advertised price, compared to 5.9% a year previously and 6.9% in the third quarter of 2019.
Richard Hemans, IoD Guernsey’s lead on economics, said the latest property statistics suggested that the market may be starting to recover after reaching a trough in the middle of this year.
‘Local market property prices decreased by 6% year-on-year in Q3 2024 and have now been declining since that time,’ he said.
‘They did increase quarter-on-quarter nonetheless, and when the large quarterly decrease from Q3 2023 drops out of the calculations in Q4 2024, it is likely that the price change for the full year of 2024 will be flat to a small decline.
'It is also important to remember that local market house prices are 40% higher than they were five years ago.’
Stuart Leslie, head of residential sales at Savills in Guernsey, said he felt that the property market had stabilised over the last three months.
‘The start of the year began very much where 2023 left off, with the rise in the cost-of-living and increasing interest rates slowing activity,’ he said.
‘But as 2024 has progressed momentum has gathered pace. In the local market, lower monthly mortgage costs are beginning to feed through into improved confidence, prompting more sales. The more stable market has also given some clarity on values which has facilitated more accurate pricing and is why the gap between asking price and sale price has reduced.’
