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Mortgage broker predicts May cut in interest rates

A cut in interest rates to below 4% in May is being predicted by a local mortgage broker following the financial market turmoil caused by tariffs brought in by US president Donald Trump.

‘We expect better opportunities to fix at a later date and currently not during 2025.’
‘We expect better opportunities to fix at a later date and currently not during 2025.’ / Guernsey Press

For that reason, Pierre Blampied, MD of SPF Private Clients, said the company would not advise a client to take out a fixed rate mortgage at the moment.

‘We remain of the view that tracker/discount rate mortgages are the better option currently as we remain in a falling interest rate environment,’ he said.

Tariffs being imposed by the USA have led to stock market turmoil. ‘This effectively means a cut in base rate on 8 May is virtually guaranteed instead of just a possibility.

‘In addition further base rate cuts have been accelerated.’

He predicted that the cut in May could see the base rate fall below 4%.

He was aware of fixed rates of 5.09% over two years and 4.84% over five years being offered.

A tracker mortgage follows the base interest rate plus 0.7%, which as of yesterday would have been 5.2% but which would be much lower if predictions of a fall in May come to pass. There are also discount rate mortgages available.

Mr Blampied said those who go direct to their bank for a mortgage might not realise that the fixed rate was not their best choice.

‘The difference between a bank and a broker is that some of the banks won’t give you advice on what product to use.

‘If you go via a broker they should be giving you advice on where interest rates are likely to go.

‘We expect better opportunities to fix at a later date and currently not during 2025.’

Jenna Senior, mortgage advisor and protection consultant at Oracle Finance, said the company tailored its advice to each customer’s needs and individual circumstances.

‘What we advise to one customer to another can vary,’ she said.

Because no two customers were the same, the company had no preference over fixed or tracker mortgages.

‘Some customers are more risk-averse and at the beginning of their mortgage journey, or have tighter affordability, preferring to budget so a fixed may be more suitable.

‘For others, such as someone who has owned a home longer, with more surplus income and ability to overpay than another, a tracker may be more advisable.’

Customers going for an appointment would receive a full review looking at their lifestyle, affordability and their aspirations in order for a suitable recommendation to be made.

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