An announcement is understood to be imminent about a deal between the States and a private airline for a daily link to Heathrow, supported by a multi-year subsidy from taxpayers, which is unlikely to be disclosed.
The total cost of the scheme could be millions of pounds a year, including losses at Aurigny, as some passengers on its London routes would inevitably switch to Heathrow flights, just as the States-owned airline has returned to a break-even financial position after recovering from a nightmare year in 2024.
Aurigny chief executive Nico Bezuidenhout, who has not been involved in the latest route development talks, believed that changes to existing destinations and fares would be unavoidable in response to subsidised seats on Heathrow flights.
‘London City would be at risk and is more likely to be axed from the standpoint that it would be easier to regain those slots in the future,’ he said.
‘That would be a crying shame because that London City service, morning and evening, meets the requirements of the finance community. By 9am you can be sitting at your boardroom table. Actually, on our service you can land at London City just before 8am, and be in terminal five at Heathrow by 9.15am, so we already provide that connectivity through to Heathrow.’
The States’ directions to Aurigny would be expected to continue protecting services on the island’s lifeline routes – Gatwick, Southampton and Alderney.
A Guernsey-Heathrow service was last operated in 2019, supported by a subsidy from taxpayers of about £120,000 a month, but at one stage Aurigny said that the route was causing it to lose an additional £80,000 a month.
Overall passenger growth at that time was 6%, but even a single daily rotation between Guernsey and Heathrow using an A319 or A320 aircraft could be expected to increase seat capacity on London routes by about 30%.
‘You would inevitably have to try substantially increasing fares and revenues from other non-London routes, which in turn affects the tourism economy, and not just tourism, because not every Guernsey resident flies to London as they have family everywhere across the UK,’ said Mr Bezuidenhout.
‘It will have far-reaching effects because we have to square the circle in one way or another. It’s not as if we can just get rid of the assets or get rid of the people.’
Mr Bezuidenhout asked people to look at the experience of the Isle of Man, which subsidises a private airline to operate the Heathrow route, but has seen its air travel market shrink from larger than Guernsey’s to smaller over the past few years.
Mr Bezuidenhout agreed to a wide-ranging interview requested by the Guernsey Press which mostly covered Aurigny’s improved performance in 2025 and plans for 2026.
He acknowledged that his comments about competition from a subsidised Heathrow service ‘may come across as self-serving’. He believed it was right to be clear about Aurigny’s concerns, but also said that he and the airline would try to respond as positively as possible to any decisions made by the States.
Read more in Tuesday’s Guernsey Press
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